<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Are Wages and Benefits Growing Faster Than We Think? U.S. workers’ wages and benefits may be picking up faster than previously thought. Employer costs for employee compensation jumped 4.9% from a year earlier in March, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the second consecutive… Continue reading Wage Growth
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Fed Officials Continue To Try To Convince The Market On Rate Hike Are Fed Watchers Reading A Different FOMC Statement Than Everyone Else? Fed Funds Futures Implied Yield China Hedge Fund Returns Bond Market Hate Household Net Worth Hits A New Record Value Of Credit As… Continue reading Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Reasons to fear a ‘triple taper tantrum’ Central banks have no contingency plan for a revival of growth The “taper tantrum” during summer 2013 was a chastening exercise in exit communication. Since then, not only the Federal Reserve but also other central banks with enlarged… Continue reading Worrying About A “Triple Taper Tantrum”
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – EIA raises 2015 but lowers 2016 oil production forecasts The U.S. government on Tuesday raised its 2015 but lowered its 2016 U.S. crude oil production forecasts. In its short term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2015 crude oil production growth forecast to 690,000… Continue reading The Expected Crude Oil Production Cut Is Disappearing
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Interest rates, secular stagnation and secular decline World growth over the past three years has fallen below its five-year rate and below its very long-term one, as chart one shows. It seems therefore reasonable to assume that we are experiencing what is at least a… Continue reading World Growth
Real Time Economics – The Fed’s Three-Meeting Ceasefire May Soon End The Federal Reserve’s longest period of public harmony in four years could come to an end next week. The last three statements from the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee–issued on Jan. 28, March 18 and April 29–all were unanimous. The Fed hadn’t gone more… Continue reading Will The Fed Get A Dissent Next Week?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – S&P 500 Rally Thins and It’s Worrying Market Analysts About 59 percent of stocks closed above their 200-day moving averages at the end of last week, the lowest percentage in eight months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Waning breadth is holding back a version of the… Continue reading A Reason To Worry About The U.S. Stock Market
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – The $3 Trillion Bond Trade Citigroup Says Investors Should Fear For all the concern that Wall Street’s shrinking balance sheets will fuel a liquidity crisis when investors flee credit markets, Citigroup Inc. strategist Stephen Antczak says investors may be overlooking an even bigger catalyst. The size… Continue reading Corporate Bond Issuance Soars
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – How Banks Are Using Accounting Shifts to Prepare for an Interest Rate Rise You are a large bank with a multibillion dollar portfolio of securities, ranging from municipal bonds to U.S. Treasuries and mortgage debt backed by the government. For years, you were able to classify… Continue reading How Banks Are Preparing For A Rate Rise
The Financial Times – Emerging market bond sell-off gathers pace As the dollar strengthens against EM currencies, there are also concerns about the ability of governments to service debts issued in the US currency, which in some cases may exceed their ability to generate dollar revenues, increasing the burden of debt repayments. Analysts are particularly… Continue reading The EM Decline
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