The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 2.0 percent on June 23, up from 1.9 percent on June 16. Following yesterday morning’s existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors and this morning’s reports… Continue reading GDPNow Update
Reuters – US new home sales rise to 7-year high in May New U.S. single-family home sales increased in May to a more than seven-year high, further brightening the outlook for the housing market and the broader economy… The report came on the heels of a report on Monday showing home resales in May surged… Continue reading Housing Data Irregularity
The Wall Street Journal – Divisions Remain as Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet Over Greece Deal Significant divisions remain between Greece and its international creditors over measures Athens must implement before receiving desperately needed bailout aid, according to a document seen by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday ahead of a crucial meeting of eurozone finance… Continue reading Greece
The Financial Times – Gary Cohen: Clearing houses reduce risk, they do not eliminate it They can be centres of risk, amplifying problems instead of alleviating them What innovation has done most to reduce risk in capital markets in the past decade? A leading contender is surely the wider use of “central clearing”, which entails… Continue reading Regulating Clearing Houses
Bloomberg.com – Macquarie: Chinese Margin Debt has Much, Much More Room to Run Margin debt in China has been on a tear as the Shanghai Composite Index has surged nearly 130 percent this year. With that, margin trading has jumped 30-fold over the past three years on the city’s stock exchange as investors borrow money… Continue reading Comparing Margin Debt Across Countries
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China Shares Recover After Falling Nearly 5% “It’s a vicious cycle where people are forced to sell because they get a ‘margin call,’ which then puts pressure on the market further,” leading to big losses such as the… Continue reading China
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics – Jon Hilsenrath: The Fed Could Misfire Again on Its Unemployment Projections During the past five years, the U.S. unemployment rate has dropped on average by 0.8 percentage points every 12 months. If that pace of decline were to persist, the jobless rate would hit 4.8%… Continue reading The Fed’s Unemployment Projections
Bloomberg.com – Major Money Manager Braces for Bond-Market Collapse TCW Group Inc. is taking the possibility of a bond-market selloff seriously. So seriously that the Los Angeles-based money manager, which oversees almost $140 billion of U.S. debt, has been accumulating more and more cash in its credit funds, with the proportion rising to the highest since… Continue reading Bond Market Hate
Bloomberg Business – Beware Bond-Liquidity Traps When Hunting Yield, Pimco Says Investors risk falling into liquidity traps as they seek to boost yields depressed by the European Central Bank’s 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) bond-buying program, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. The search for yield has caused investors to buy riskier and less frequently… Continue reading Bond Liquidity And Searching For Yield
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Americans’ Net Worth Reaches High of $84.9 Trillion Americans’ combined wealth set a fresh record in the first quarter amid rising home values and stock prices, a trend that could prop up economic growth, though consumers also showed some caution when borrowing in a… Continue reading Household Net Worth Hits A New Record
CNBC – Market worth 5-10 percent more: Jeremy Siegel The U.S. stock market will survive the turmoil coming out of Greece, with the Dow Jones industrial average still hitting 20,000 by December or January as long as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, longtime stock bull Jeremy Siegel said Monday. He thinks that rate hike… Continue reading Jeremy Siegel Is Still Bullish On Stocks