Today's topics include is BoJ policy now at the whim of the carry trade?, sizing up the yen carry trade, pumping the brakes on an emergency rate cut, Claudia Sahm explains why her rule might be wrong, weather's effect on the payrolls report, Dudley on the Fed, and watch the yuan
JP Morgan suggests the speculative carry trade is only half unwound. The exchange rate between the yen and peso is one market to monitor closely.
Today's topics include how will the market selloff impact the Fed's path?, Goolsbee & Daly attempt to tame the masses, the end of easy money: Japanese edition, turnaround Tuesday, the storm after the calm, recession fears, and stocks vs. bonds
A replay of our August 8, 2024 conference call.
Not all sharp moves in financial markets are driven by rapid changes in the economic outlook. Unexpected changes in the financial structure of the markets can also force repricing. The most recent move in the markets has been driven by the Bank of Japan's larger-than-expected hike last week, leading to a subsequent unwind of the yen carry trade.
We are into Q2 2024 earnings season. Expectations for Q2 have increased, even as high-profile companies miss projections.
Today's topics include a 75 basis point rate cut?, Fedspeak, diving deeper into Friday's payrolls release, volatility spikes, Japanese stocks take biggest hit in 37 years, the yen carry trade unwind, the yield curve on the verge of uninverting, what happens to stocks after the first rate cut?, and hedge funds sour on commodities
The jobs report raises fears of a serious economic slowdown, if not a recession. These fears are overblown. That said, we expect the Fed to respond with rate cuts.
Today's topics include a perspective on a political Fed, the Fed's rock & hard place moment, high profile earnings misses drag tech outlook, 10-year yield is below 4%, global central bank divergence, dumping Japanese stocks, China's failing recovery poses global risks, flows v. performance disconnect in fixed income, worker productivity rises in the US, commodities struggle, and predicting crises is a judgement call