The Economist – Hedge funds: Fatal distraction Pension schemes should avoid an expensive form of fund management THEY are sometimes portrayed as invincible, with enough cunning to outfox financial markets and enough clout to outgun governments. But hedge funds have been bested by an unassuming rival: exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These claim no special expertise, just… Continue reading Lagging Hedge Funds
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Buttonwood: Material difficulties Falling commodity prices and emerging-market equities are bad omens for the world economy FIVE years ago, two views were fairly common. The future belonged not to the sluggish, ageing advanced economies but to the emerging markets. Furthermore, those economies had such demand for… Continue reading Are Commodities A World Economic Indicator?
MarketWatch – Puerto Rico looks set to default on $58 million payment this weekend Investors are bracing for Puerto Rico to miss about $58 million in bond payments in coming days, as the U.S. commonwealth attempts to restructure $72 billion of debt. Saturday’s deadline could mark the first skipped payment to bondholders since Gov. Alejandro… Continue reading Will Puerto Rico Default This Weekend?
The Financial Times – Why summer storms loom for investors Pressure on emerging markets, uncertainty on China and Fed rate rise concerns make explosive package A summer break for investors looks highly unlikely this year. While many of us are already enjoying or planning some welcome down time away from the shackles of the office,… Continue reading Is More Market Volatility Coming This Summer?
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[pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=265″] The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Stands Pat on Rates, Sees Job Progress The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its key interest rate near zero but cited progress in the U.S. job market, a sign it remains on course to raise interest rates in September or later this year.At the… Continue reading The FOMC Meeting
Janus Capital – Bill Gross: Say A Little Prayer There is no statistical reason per se for the Fed to raise interest rates, yet absent a major global catastrophe we are likely to get one in September. But the reason will not be the risk of rising inflation, nor the continued downward push of unemployment… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks On The Reasons The Fed May Hike
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – What the leaked Fed forecasts tell us The FOMC is almost 100 basis points (1 per cent) more hawkish on rates than its staff in 2017, about two-thirds of which is due to a difference in the equilibrium interest rate assumed by the two parties.… Continue reading More On The Fed Staff Projections
Comment After each FOMC meeting, we highlight a St. Louis Fed study on the rising complexity of the FOMC statement. As the charts below show, both the word count and the Flesch-Kincaid level have come down from their peaks of the past couple years (the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level measures the number of years of school… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Economy Expands 2.3% in 2nd Quarter The U.S. economy accelerated modestly in the second quarter after a slow start to 2015, but growth this year is still less than last year’s tepid first half and is well below the overall pace of the recovery. Gross domestic product, the broadest… Continue reading Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – Shanghai Slumped 8.5%: What Is China’s True Growth Rate, Size Of Margin Positions? Investors are zooming in on China’s GDP growth rate again. In a recent survey with investors – hedge funds and “real money” – Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that more than 75% believe… Continue reading Are The Chinese Lying?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Mixed Signals on U.S. Oil Output Investors, traders and executives who rely on federal data from the Energy Information Administration are tripping over conflicting images of U.S. production that have emerged from separate EIA reports in recent months…Weekly oil-output estimates from the EIA started… Continue reading Oil Production