<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Justin Lahart: Fed Funds Future Nearer Than You Think September is looking more certain as liftoff date for rates Investors surveyed by the New York Fed in June expected that when the Fed raises its target range to an expected 0.25% to 0.5%, the… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike
Bloomberg.com – The Fed Is on Thinner Ice Than It Realizes, and It May Be Setting Us Up for Recession David Beckworth argues that China is yet another victim of the Fed’s status as a monetary superpower. And it should not go unnoticed that as the economy has settled into this mediocre equilibrium, fears of… Continue reading The Fed’s Reasoning For Hiking
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – Who Is Holding All the Excess Reserves? The Federal Reserve requires depository institutions in the United States to hold a certain fraction of their deposits as reserves—either as vault cash or on deposit with a Federal Reserve Bank. These reserve requirements were originally intended to ensure that banks had… Continue reading Who Holds The Excess Reserves?
The Wall Street Journal – China Devalues in Search of Demand Devaluation may help Beijing achieve some policy goals, but the move won’t be so welcome in the global economy. The People’s Bank of China shocked global markets Tuesday by devaluing the yuan 1.9% against the U.S. dollar. It also announced a potentially important change… Continue reading China’s Devaluation
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Goldman Buyback Desk Had Busiest Day Since ’11 as Shares Rallied Who did the buying as U.S. stocks staged the biggest turnaround in three years? The companies that issued them. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. unit that executes share buybacks for clients had its busiest day since… Continue reading Buybacks
SNL – Katie Darden: Looking for direction at Leen’s Lodge Camp Kotok is not a conference in the conventional sense of the term, but its participants enjoy a good argument. The closest thing to a formal presentation happens on Saturday evening, when two participants lead the discussion of a specific topic. Last year it was… Continue reading More On Camp Kotok
The Wall Street Journal – Timothy A Duy: Global Gold Demand Drops 12% in Second Quarter Global demand for gold plummeted 12% to a six-year low in the second quarter, as vital buyers in Asia lost their appetite for the metal, the World Gold Council said Thursday. Demand for the precious metal weighed in at… Continue reading Gold Demand Continues To Fall
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/081315.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: Sliding Past Summer Yellen On Markets Yellen’s First Question At The Presser How Much Does Market Opinion Matter To The Fed? What The Fed Will Do The Effective Fed Funds Futures How Bloomberg Calculates The Probabilities Discounting A September Hike… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
ETF Trends (Blog) – Despite Declines, Investors Love Oil ETFs The United States Oil Fund is off almost 27% over the past 90 days, but that glum performance is not damping some investors’ enthusiasm for oil exchange traded funds. Even with prices of West Texas Intermediate, the crude contract tracked by USO, sliding 21% last… Continue reading Energy/Crude Investors Stay Bullish, Lose Billions
The Wall Street Journal – China’s Export Defense Will Slow Fed’s Offense A weaker yuan will set off deflationary ripples—and slow the pace of Fed rate increases. Consider this: From 1996 to 2010, China’s share of U.S. footwear imports went from 50% to 76%. But since then, as China’s labor costs became less competitive versus… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Global oil supply grows at ‘breakneck speed’, says IEA The global oil glut will persist well into 2016, the world’s leading energy body said on Wednesday, even as the collapse in prices is pushing up demand at the fastest pace in five years. The International… Continue reading Oil Glut To Continue Through 2016