<Click on chart for larger image> Economics21.org – Caroline Baum: ‘Prevailing Westerlies’ May Blow the Fed Off Course In one month’s time, the Federal Reserve will put its finger to the wind to determine if the time is right for lift-off from near-zero interest rates. Policy makers may find that the prevailing Westerlies – the… Continue reading Debating The Rate Hike
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Timing The Rate Hike Is China Panicking About Economic Growth? China’s U.S. Treasury Holdings Rise Credit As A Leading Indicator Credit ETFs Credit ETFs – 2 Equity Fund Flows Hedge Funds And Crude Oil Hedge Funds And Crude Oil – 2 A Short History Of Hedge… Continue reading Charts of the Week
The Financial Times – Christophe Donay: Overvalued equities can keep rising Central banks’ informal policy style puts floor under asset prices The considerable dislocations in financial markets at present are rooted in policy decisions by central banks. Since 2009, all the major central banks have switched from inflation targeting to forms of quantitative easing and… Continue reading Did QE Help The Economy?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics (AQA) – Rate Hike Timing – Key Economic Thresholds Being Met, but Growth is Slow Economists have expected a return to higher rates for years (see WSJ surveys). Focusing on some tools to analyze Fed Funds, the baseline Taylor rule pressed well above Fed Funds in… Continue reading What Drives The Fed Rate Hike Decision?
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch.com – Jeff Gundlach calls possible Fed hike a ‘bad idea,’ warns of ‘Pandora’s Box’ Bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach has again poured cold water on a hot market topic — chatter that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. He said if the central bank starts hiking rates… Continue reading Gundlach Speaks
The Wall Street Journal – Narayana Kocherlakota: Raising Rates Now Would Be a Mistake With inflation so low, higher rates will push the economy away from the Fed’s price and employment goals. I participate in the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve. In that capacity, I’m… Continue reading The Fed Argues With Itself About A Rate Hike
Bloomberg Business – Why Yellen Doesn’t Need to Worry About Spooking U.S. Consumers Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has a lot to worry about as she gets ready to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. One concern she may be able to put aside: Spooking U.S. shoppers. Consumers, whose spending… Continue reading The Rate Hike And U.S. Consumers
<Click on table for larger image> Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed Blog) – Liquidity during Flash Events “Flash events,” extremely large price moves and reversals over just a few minutes, have occurred in some of the world’s most liquid markets in recent years. What’s made these events remarkable is that they seem to have been… Continue reading Bond Market Liquidity, Part 2
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Yuan’s Devaluation Brings Losses for Some Investors assumed China would keep the currency stable. They were wrong In recent years, China has increasingly sanctioned the use of its currency in financial investment strategies. Nearly 150 banks in the internationalized market of Hong Kong now… Continue reading China
<Click on chart for larger image> Want China Times – China’s holdings of US Treasuries continues to rise China’s holdings of Treasuries rose about US$900 million to US$1.27 trillion in June, the latest data from the Treasury Department showed Monday. China has increased its US treasuries holdings for four months in a row and remained… Continue reading China Increases Their U.S. Treasury Holdings
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Dividend stocks given new lease of life Whether investors will continue to reward dividend stocks depends largely on expectations about the timing and pace of rate rises by the Fed. “The conventional wisdom is that a slower China and a China more willing to devalue… Continue reading Dividend Stocks And China