<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The chart above shows the average correlation of each of the stocks in the S&P 500 to the overall index is at its highest level in almost four years. Our colleagues at Arbor Quantitative Analytics just completed a similar study showing the correlation between S&P sectors is at… Continue reading Market Correlations
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Economists Are Split Over Whether the Fed Will Raise Rates in September U.S. central bankers face their toughest policy call in years in September — raise interest rates or wait a little longer. Whatever the decision, about half of economists will be wrong. Forty-eight percent of… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike
The Financial Times – Fed official flags concern over US growth “These developments might suggest a downward revision in the forecast that is large enough to raise concerns about whether further tightening of labour markets is likely,” Mr Rosengren said in a speech in New York. “Without an expectation of growth above potential and further… Continue reading The Fed Acknowledges US Growth Concerns
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China Boosts Efforts to Keep Money at Home China is imposing fresh controls to prevent too much money from leaving its shores, escalating its battle against a deepening slump in the world’s No. 2 economy. The country’s central bank said Tuesday that it will… Continue reading More On China’s Battle To Prop Its Markets
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Martin Wolf: China risks an economic discontinuity Many believe the economy is already growing far more slowly than the government admits Many believe the economy is already growing far more slowly than the government admits. But the weaker the prospective rate of growth and the… Continue reading China’s Real Growth Rate
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Just the Mechanics of the Fed’s Exit Strategy Could Boost the Dollar The U.S. dollar has risen 17 percent against the euro over the past year, as the Federal Reserve has drawn closer to raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. There could be further… Continue reading The Mechanics Of The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Playing a Game of Chess That Results in an Endless Cycle of Easing At the beginning of the game, the global economy is at an arbitrary point of equilibrium, similar to a chess board, with the pieces representing policy tools that are… Continue reading The Endless Spiral Of QE
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Fed Take Note: August Jobs Data Often Falls Short — At First The Federal Reserve is already dealing with noisy financial markets throwing a wrench in expectations for a rate increase in September. Now it might have to deal with noisy data. The August employment report is due this Friday and… Continue reading Previewing The Payroll Report
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Market Bets Abound, but Where Are the Banks? The past two weeks of nearly unprecedented stock-market volatility once would have marked ideal trading conditions at the country’s biggest banks. That era is over. As Wall Street brimmed with tales of hedge-fund fortunes made and… Continue reading Bank Regulation
CNBC – The bull market is over: Louise Yamada The market turmoil continued Tuesday as weak data out of China pushed all major U.S. indices down more than 2 percent. The S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq composite have now fallen a respective 6.5, 9.5 and 1 percent year to date, and according… Continue reading Is The Bull Market Over?
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/090215.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: China Has It All Under Control? Worst Since Tiananmen Square? Worst Since Tiananmen Square? Modeling China Lower Downtrending Economic Measures Despite Low Expectations, Still Disappointing China’s Raw Materials Costs China Eases And Stocks Still Fall What Haven’t They Tried? The… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week