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September 25, 2015
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Breakevens As A True Measure Of Inflation
September 24, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – San Francisco Fed: Market-Based Inflation Forecasts Are Lousy In a recently released Economic Letter, Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy of the San Francisco Federal Reserve’s economic research department find that many factors prevent market-based measures of inflation from being a true gauge of how the market… Continue reading Breakevens As A True Measure Of Inflation
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What Will It Take For A Fed Hike?
September 24, 2015
Bloomberg.com – We Still Aren’t Sure What Will Cause Janet Yellen to Pull the Trigger The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s communication strategy is clearly questionable when the outcome of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting is considered a coin toss among economists who closely follow monetary policy. What’s missing from the central bank’s communication… Continue reading What Will It Take For A Fed Hike?
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Treasury Volume & HFTs
September 24, 2015
<Click on graphic for larger image> Risk Magazine – Client list reveals HFT dominance on BrokerTec A confidential list of the top 10 firms by volume on BrokerTec reveals the extent of high-frequency trading (HFT) in the Icap-owned interdealer market for US Treasuries – data that is not shared with participants on the platform. The… Continue reading Treasury Volume & HFTs
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How Much Ammo Does The ECB Have For Further QE?
September 24, 2015
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – How Far Can the ECB Extend Its Bond Purchases? The European Central Bank is expected to pump up its easing program as inflation remains stubbornly low. But just how far can the central bank expand its bond-buying effort under current ownership limitations? Since March, the ECB has been buying €60 billion… Continue reading How Much Ammo Does The ECB Have For Further QE?
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Greenspan’s Oasis Of Prosperity
September 24, 2015
MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: Greenspan’s 1998 warning finally rings true for Yellen in 2015 In the run-up to the Federal Reserve meeting last week, several news stories invoked that famous wordsmith, Alan Greenspan, to describe the dilemma facing the current Fed chairwoman, Janet Yellen. In September 1998, during the Asian financial crisis, Greenspan famously stated… Continue reading Greenspan’s Oasis Of Prosperity
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Risk Parity Strategy
September 24, 2015
The Financial Times – Risk parity strategy seeks new approach Risk parity, an investment strategy pioneered by hedge fund group Bridgewater and adopted by asset managers such as BlackRock and Invesco, has enjoyed a tremendous run. But an underwhelming summer could turn into a harsh autumn. In its basic form, the strategy consists of investing… Continue reading Risk Parity Strategy
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Crude Oil Supply/Demand
September 24, 2015
The Wall Street Journal – Fracking Firms That Drove Oil Boom Struggle to Survive A wave of bankruptcies and closures is sweeping across the oil patch, with dozens of hydraulic-fracturing companies at risk, industry experts say. Most of the companies that help oil-and-gas explorers drill and frack wells are small, privately owned and just a… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply/Demand
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September 24, 2015
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Charts of the Week
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
September 23, 2015
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/092415.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: What Does This Mean? Bernanke On QE, It’s All About Stock Prices Bernanke Defends QE New York Fed President Bill Dudley Weighs In Yellen Talks About The Stock Market The Fed’s Real Reaction Function? Stocks And QE Breaking Down Stocks… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
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More On The Forward Curve And The Fed
September 23, 2015
Harvard Business School – Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam: Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem? We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has private information about its long-run target for the policy rate; and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this… Continue reading More On The Forward Curve And The Fed
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When Will The Fed Raise Rates?
September 23, 2015
The Financial Times – Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed must stop dithering and take action Increasing distortions of low rates threaten to collapse into crisis Janet Yellen recently told Congress: “I do not agree a rules-based policy is a better way to go.” Though the Federal Reserve chair was referring to a different rule, her words… Continue reading When Will The Fed Raise Rates?