<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – The Surprise About Weak U.S. Profits Is How Strong They Are For all the warnings from the bears that the plunge in profits is proof that U.S. stocks have nowhere to go but down, not so fast. Buried deep in a routine Federal Reserve report that is… Continue reading Different Measures Of Earnings
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – FFs Target Rate – Econ Data Still Suggests No Hike Below are probabilities of being in a rate hike cycle generated using a series of economic indicators (IP, CPI, Wages, UE, and PMI). The model (logistic regression) using all indicators shows a probability of 37%… Continue reading The Probability Of A Hike
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Soft Jobs Numbers Likely to Stay Fed’s Hand in October Friday’s soft jobs numbers are unlikely to produce panic at the Federal Reserve about the health of the jobs market, but the report does reduce the likelihood the central bank will raise… Continue reading Timing The First Rate Hike, Is It Coming This Spring?
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Oil Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut Hedge funds trimmed bullish oil bets for the first time in six weeks, losing faith in a swift recovery as Russia boosted output to the highest since the Soviet Union collapsed. Speculators reduced their net-long… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Credit Investors Bolt Party as Economy Fears Trump Low Rates Perception of corporate debt risk rises on U.S. jobs report High-yield bond market on track for worst week of the year Debt investors are a nervous lot these days, and new signs that global turmoil is weighing… Continue reading Corporate Debt
<Click on graphic for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – For October, Stocks Outperform When Market Weakness Precedes It Despite its reputation for market disruptions, October is typically an up month for stocks. And the recent market selloff is suggesting larger-than-normal gains could be in store this October. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen… Continue reading An Alternate Take On October Seasonality
The Wall Street Journal – Ben S. Bernanke: How the Fed Saved the Economy Full employment without inflation is in sight. The central bank did its job. What about everyone else? It is encouraging to see that the U.S. economy is approaching full employment with low inflation, the goals for which the Fed has been… Continue reading Bernanke Defends His Legacy
Bloomberg View – Mohamed A. El-Erian: The Fed and the Disappointing Jobs Report With weaker-than-expected payroll expansion, the jobs report for September suggests the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global economic slowdown. The disappointing performance reduces the probability the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in October. Yet the continued stimulative monetary policy of… Continue reading More On The Jobs Report
Bloomberg.com – Gas Bears Bathing in Shale Glut Raise Net Short Bets to Record Hedge funds raised bearish bets on U.S. natural gas to a record as warm weather threatened to crimp demand for the heating fuel this winter. Money managers boosted net-short positions in four U.S. gas contracts by 26 percent in the week… Continue reading Hedge Funds Bearish On Natural Gas
The New York Times – Policy Makers Skeptical on Preventing Financial Crisis The 2008 financial crisis convinced most people in the world of central banking that it would be a good idea to try to prevent that kind of thing from happening again. But policy makers have made little progress in figuring out how they… Continue reading Macroprudential Regulation
<Click on graphic for larger image> Risk.net – Dealers claim they are victims of predatory behaviour in US Treasury markets dominated by high-frequency traders “In 2004, there were only a couple of non-banks that mattered [on BrokerTec],” says a source close to Icap. “By 2006, you also had Getco and Citadel, with the latter having… Continue reading More on HFT/Algos Taking Over The Treasury Market
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – New Emerging-Market Woes Companies’ U.S.-dollar debt could be hurt as commodities and currencies fall One of the last havens in emerging markets is showing signs of strain. Companies in emerging markets issued trillions of dollars of foreign-currency bonds during the decadelong commodity boom, and… Continue reading Dollar-Denominated Debt