Today's topics include Timiraos throws some doubt on rate cuts, yields zoom higher, inflation puts Fed in a tough spot, the unfortunate fate of Tuesday's big SOFR trade, El-Erian argues for acceptance of a 'new' global economic paradigm, all quiet on the QT front...so far, more talk & no action on fiscal spending, changes coming for some prime money market funds, active vs. passive, and a fun AI thought experiment
Year-over-year inflation came in slightly above expectations again in March. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, rose for a fifth straight month. Time is slowly running out for data that supports a Fed rate cut this year. Traders now put the odds of a June or July cut at less than 50%.
Commodities, equities, and crypto have been rallying based on economic strength in the United States and inflation remaining sticky at 3%. Higher commodity prices indicate belief in the persistence of inflation above the Fed's target.
Today's topics include record trade yesterday before CPI, measuring inflation if homeownership costs were included, Fed & ECB divergence could be cause for concern, rates & oil, government debt, private credit returns, BoJ yen intervention, and are ETF option income strategies quelling market volatility?
pic.twitter.com/HoRGe2gaWB — Judah Rhodie (@judahrhodie) April 4, 2024
Jim Bianco joins the 2024 Hedgeye Investing Summit hosted by Hedgeye Founder Keith McCullough.
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, predicting payrolls, narratives fuel market moves, Bullard sticks with three cuts this year, elevated rates not consistent with rate cuts, banks' net interest income, rising commodities prices making life difficult for Fed, JGB liquidity, and a glut of natural gas
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, predicting payrolls, narratives fuel market moves, Bullard sticks with three cuts this year, elevated rates not consistent with rate cuts, banks' net interest income, rising commodities prices making life difficult for Fed, JGB liquidity, and a glut of natural gas
Q1 2024 earnings season starts this week. Expectations are still positive but have declined significantly while company guidance and negative preannouncements have turned lower. This could present a "valuation challenge" for equities.
Today's topics include timing the rate cuts, a key level for yields?, crude oil supply vs. demand, big tech's cash pile, European stocks are much cheaper than U.S. stocks, don't call it shrinkflation!, European debt issuance, and betting against the yen