Cumberland Advisors – The Fed and the Discount Rate The discount rate recommendations are those of the bank’s board of directors and not the president, who simply discusses proposed changes with his or her board. On the other hand, the president’s vote or position at the FOMC is not that of the bank’s board of… Continue reading The Discount Rate
Bloomberg Business – Why the Bank of England May Move Before the Fed The latest rounds of data in the U.S. and the U.K. are pointing to a conclusion that few thought likely a few months ago: The appropriate time for the first post-crisis rate rise by the Bank of England may be reached before… Continue reading Timing The Rate Rise In The U.K.
<Click on graphic for larger image> DealBook (NYT Blog) – Obama Administration Draws Up Plan to Help Puerto Rico With Debt Looking for a way to help debt-ridden Puerto Rico, administration officials on Wednesday proposed an ambitious — if politically perilous — plan that stops short of a direct federal bailout but that its backers… Continue reading Puerto Rico’s Debt
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Timing The Rate Hike An Updated Look At Earnings Expectations Guidance China Sells U.S. Debt A Look At Inflation More Trouble For Hedge Funds Crude Oil Forecasts We Still Produce Too Much Oil Retail Sales Bond Bulls Chinese GDP Growth Now Under 7% Margin Debt Credit… Continue reading Charts of the Week
October 21, 2015 T-Bill Quotes MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Lack of Action in Congress Forces U.S. Borrowing Costs Off the Floor Worries over a potential debt-ceiling impasse have rattled some portion of the bills market since Friday, sending some yields to a two-year high during Monday’s trading. Investors have been cutting exposure to bills due… Continue reading Update On T-Bills
Bloomberg.com – OPEC Is About to Crush the U.S. Oil Boom After a year suffering the economic consequences of the oil price slump, OPEC is finally on the cusp of choking off growth in U.S. crude output. The nation’s production is almost back down to the level pumped in November, when the Organization of Petroleum… Continue reading More On Crude Oil Supply/Demand
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – For Hedge Funds, a Can’t-Miss Trade Goes Bust The trade that was supposed to carry the year is ruining it instead. Hedge-fund and private-equity managers over the past year began piling into debt issued by troubled energy companies, hoping to profit off a reversal… Continue reading Hedge Funds’ Failed Bets
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Lower margin debt may limit S&P 500 rally The S&P 500 opened Wednesday’s session within about 5 per cent of May’s record closing high. Can the market rely on seasonal tailwinds to reach virgin territory before the year is out? Well, earnings season is doing… Continue reading Margin Debt
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Liquidity Rules Make Liquid Assets Less Liquid New liquidity requirements are turning banks into hoarders, according to analysis by Interactive Data Corp. Research by the data provider found that banks are stockpiling high-quality, liquid assets to comply with new bank liquidity risk-management rules passed after the financial crisis. This, in turn,… Continue reading Liquidity
Bloomberg.com – Draghi May Lack What It Takes to Do Whatever It Takes on Prices Mario Draghi is under pressure from financial markets to match his words with action…The biggest obstacle to doing more may again be Germany, home to some of the policy makers most skeptical of quantitative easing and unlikely to want to… Continue reading Draghi Runs Into Procedural Issues With Doing “Whatever It Takes”
MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: No, the U.S. will not default on its debt, no matter what The U.S. Treasury can’t cover all its monthly payments with incoming monthly revenue. But it can avoid default, defined by credit-rating agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s as a failure to make timely payment of principal and interest. In… Continue reading Revisiting The Idea Of Payment Prioritization