Charts of the Week
Small Business Owners Face Uncertainty
August 23, 2024
The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index is at a level rarely seen over the past five decades.
The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index is at a level rarely seen over the past five decades.
Homebuyers enjoyed a relatively affordable market in the decade following the housing crash. The recent rise in prices and mortgage rates put homeownership out of reach for many prospective first-time buyers.
The current deficit and spending is consistent with prior recessionary levels.
Given the recent selloff in markets, we update market valuations through the lens of common bubble characteristics.
How big are the Fed's holdings of bonds, notes, bills, TIPS, MBS, agencies, and FRNs in relation the outstanding market?
A long-term look at global surface temperatures
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Today's topics include some perspective on yesterday's benchmark jobs revision, items for Powell to address at Jackson Hole, how many cuts in 2024?, gold as a hedge, global QT, the Mag Seven has underperformed this quarter, the FOMC minutes, and more global shipping problems
Recessions and crises change behavior. Government stimulus checks mailed during the pandemic told consumers they don't need to save as much. This is driving strong consumption and retail sales, keeping economic growth above potential. Such an economy does not need rate cuts.
Today's topics include investors will hang on Powell's every word at Jackson Hole, don't forget recession predictions are just guesses, bond bullishness, interpreting the bond market, federal spending was the cause of inflation, more carry trades, money market funds add nearly $90b in August, gold bullishness, dollar down on rate cuts ahead, artificial intelligence excitement dying out, and tipping in the United States causes consumer frustration