Salomon Brothers chief John Gutfreund, front in this undated photo, commanded a vast bond-trading desk on Wall Street. Photo: The Life Images Collection/Getty The Wall Street Journal – Wall Street Goes Short on Bond Traders No longer masters of the universe, big banks’ bond traders are taking a back seat to counterparts working for hedge… Continue reading 1980s-Style Bond Trading Is No More
Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us today as we discuss the Fed’s upcoming decision. We will discuss how financial stability concerns are prompting the move, the… Continue reading What The Fed Decision Means
Fact Set – (11/27/15) EARNINGS INSIGHT For Q3 2015, the blended earnings decline is -1.3%. The third quarter marks the first back-to-back quarters of earnings declines since 2009. For Q4 2015, 81 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 26 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. In terms of downward revisions to earnings estimates, eight… Continue reading A Historical Look At Earnings
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – Coming soon to central banks: ‘The great monetary divergence’ Is “the great monetary divergence” upon us? According to one expert, the answer will become clear in 24 hours. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is set to announce new stimulus plans Thursday while Federal Reserve Chair Janet… Continue reading The Rate Hike
The Wall Street Journal – Where Janet Yellen’s Path Will Lead Treasurys In a couple of weeks, the Federal Reserve is set to raise its target for overnight interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. But even as the era of near-zero short-term rates comes to an end, the era of low… Continue reading A Hike’s Effect On Treasuries
The Wall Street Journal – Wall Street Goes Short on Bond Traders The numbers confirm a sea change in the $39 trillion U.S. bond market. Since 2011, overall bonds outstanding have risen 11%, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, while big banks’ revenue from trading bonds, currencies and commodities has declined about… Continue reading The Disappearance Of Bond Traders
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – OPEC’s Faith in Oil Demand Rise Rests on Shaky Ground The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ bet that oil demand will steadily rise in 2016 has a looming problem: Consumption is notoriously difficult to predict. Since 2010, the oil market’s three biggest supply-and-demand… Continue reading Be Skeptical Of Any Forecasts For Oil Demand
<Click on graphic for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Statisticians’ Plea: Please Pick Up the Phone In the era of big data, when demand for statistics is higher than ever, a shadow of danger looms over the numbers revolution: People are increasingly refusing to provide them. A U.K. government review published Wednesday… Continue reading An Interesting Note On The Accuracy Of Statistical Surveys
The Financial Times – John Authers: Caution on US inflation is now warranted We are now fully into the season for predictions for the coming year, and it is one I always dread. It is fair enough for strategists to have a model, input their best guesses, and then trumpet the precise number that emerges.… Continue reading The Inflation Landscape In 2016
Bloomberg.com – Outlawing Bailouts Won’t End Them The U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted a rule that illustrates a fundamental contradiction in Congress’s approach to financial reform: Legislators want to outlaw bailouts, but neither they nor regulators have done enough to make bailouts unnecessary. The rule, mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, prevents the Fed… Continue reading More On The End Of Too Big To Fail