<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – Year of Distress for Debt-Burdened Oil Firms Just Got Even Worse Yields on commodity-related bonds climb to 2009 levels About 43% of debt from sector trades below 80 cents on dollar Just when it seemed things couldn’t get worse for debt-laden energy companies, a renewed rout in… Continue reading Energy Bonds
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Iron Ore in $30s Seen Near Tipping Point for Largest Miners Big Four’s highest-cost mines pressured: Capital Economics Miners’ shares retreat, with BHP sliding to lowest in 10 years Iron ore’s tumble into the $30s threatens the world’s biggest miners as prices approach break-even costs, according to… Continue reading The Miner’s Horror Show
The Financial Times – French regulator sanctions Euronext and Virtu for HFT activity It found the algorithm constituted 62.7 per cent of all trading messages — which included placing, amending and cancelling orders — on Euronext Paris but just 2 per cent of trades. Furthermore, it found that the lifespan of its orders was extremely… Continue reading HFT In The French Market
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What The Fed Decision Means A transcript of the December 3, 2015 conference call. Handout Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/120315.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Webcast [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/120315.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=276″]
Comment Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg TV on Friday discussing the markets. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. Bloomberg.com – What the Jobs Report Means for Yellen’s Plan to Raise Rates Gradually Payroll rise well above level Yellen suggested was necessary Wage gains… Continue reading Slow & Steady Rate Hikes
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The top panel of the chart above shows OPEC production. OPEC is essentially producing at a rate near their recent highs. Note that in 2002 and again in 2009 OPEC cut production by more than 10% (bottom panel). In both of those cases the price of crude oil… Continue reading OPEC & The Price Of Oil
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As we detailed last week, the euro was not as crowded a trade as it was in the Spring. This is shown in the chart above. The net short positions were far greater in the spring than they are now. As such, we think last week’s reversal looks… Continue reading Draghi – “Not Really… Well, Of Course”
<Click on graphic for larger image> Social Science Research Network – Stock Returns Over the FOMC Cycle We document that since 1994 the equity premium in the US and in the rest of the world is earned entirely in weeks 0, 2, 4 and 6 in FOMC cycle time, i.e. in time since the last… Continue reading Profiting Off Fed Leaks
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – What to Expect From Earnings in 2016 Wall Street is expecting a better earnings picture in 2016. But are the estimates again too rosy? “Given historical trends and current uncertainty, the numbers are likely to come down,” said Lindsey Bell, senior analyst at S&P Capital IQ. Earnings for 2016 are expected… Continue reading Looking Ahead To 2016 Earnings
The New York Times – Robert J. Shiller: Don’t Assume a Fed Action Will Move the Market In the near zero-interest-rate environment of recent years, people have naturally searched for alternative investments, and that may have led them into wishful thinking. People might be viewing high prices in the stock and housing markets as evidence… Continue reading The Market’s Reaction To A Hike
The Financial Times – Corporate bond market hit by rates fears Investor alarm at the riskier end of the US corporate bond market is mounting, with borrowing costs for the lowest-rated companies climbing to their highest level since the financial crisis as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in… Continue reading Investment Grade & Junk