<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Free exchange: A mean feat Despite forecasters’ best efforts, growth is devilishly hard to predict Forecasters usually rely on two different predictive approaches. One is theory-based, shaped by how economists believe economies behave. The other is data-based, shaped by how economies have behaved in the past.… Continue reading Can Anyone Forecast Growth?
Janus – Bill Gross: It’s a Xanax World Some politicians like Paul Ryan who argue for balanced fiscal budgets are intelligent sounding but relatively clueless. “Austerity – if not now, then when?”, he would argue in Reaganesque twitter. “Let’s slow down or even stop the inexorable clicking of the debt clock: 16 trillion, 17 trillion,… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
The Economist – Saudi Arabia is considering an IPO of Aramco, probably the world’s most valuable company SAUDI ARABIA is thinking about listing shares in Saudi Aramco, the state-owned company that is the world’s biggest oil producer and almost certainly the world’s most valuable company. Muhammad bin Salman, the kingdom’s deputy crown prince and power… Continue reading Aramco, A $10 Trillion IPO?
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Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us today as we discuss the outlook for the economy and financial markets looking into 2016. We see weaker growth, struggling… Continue reading What To Look For In 2016
CNBC – Fed minutes: For some, rate hike was a ‘close call’ Federal Reserve policymakers decided to raise interest rates last month after almost all of them gained confidence inflation was poised to rise, but some voiced worries inflation could get stuck at dangerously low levels. “Nearly all participants were now reasonably confident inflation would… Continue reading The Fed Minutes – 4 Hikes In 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China’s Shortest Day Will Prolong the Pain By dragging out the pain of its stock- and currency-market adjustments, China is only ensuring that things will get worse before they get better. Chinese stocks had just about the shortest trading session possible Thursday morning, thanks… Continue reading More Volatility In China
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Oil Prices Fall to Lows Last Seen Over a Decade Ago Oil prices slid to levels not seen in more than a decade on Thursday, hammered by continuing market turmoil in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer…“Chinese equity markets temporarily halting again was like… Continue reading Oil’s Slide Continues
The Financial Times – Drought descends on US junk bond market The US high-yield bond market has been shuttered for the longest period of time since 2011, as sharp gyrations across global equity markets further damp risk appetite from an investor base that suffered a losing 2015. Speculative grade US companies — those rated double… Continue reading The High Yield Drought
CNBC – Soros: It’s the 2008 crisis all over again Billionaire financier George Soros is warning of an impending financial markets crisis as investors around the world were roiled by turmoil in China trade for the second time this week. Speaking an economic forum in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo, he told an audience that China… Continue reading Soros Sees A Crisis
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Offshore Bets Against Yuan Gain Momentum Bets that China will let the yuan weaken further gathered steam Wednesday, increasing the gap between the currency’s onshore rate and the more market-sensitive offshore price to its widest point ever. China’s central bank sparked the selling after… Continue reading A Tale Of Two Yuans
The Wall Street Journal – World Bank Again Cuts Global Growth Forecasts Souring prospects in the world’s largest emerging markets are darkening an already cloudy outlook for the global economy, the World Bank said on Wednesday, as it cut growth forecasts for the third straight year. Deeper contractions than expected in Brazil and Russia and… Continue reading World Growth Forecasts