Comment Last week we detailed the flows into crude oil/energy ETFs into the collapse in prices. Below we show numerous examples of oil bullishness in the face of price declines. First, Factset details how analysts on Wall Street expect a rebound in oil prices and energy earnings: <Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on… Continue reading Oil Bulls Refuse To Throw In Towel
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Cracks Exposed in U.S. Bond Market as Liquidity Woes Warp Prices In today’s bond market, there’s plenty of hand-wringing about liquidity, or rather, the lack of it. But it’s become so pervasive that even in the market for U.S. Treasuries — the deepest and most liquid on… Continue reading Bond Market Liquidity
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Why the Fed Is the Root of Much Market Turmoil Not long ago, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting looked like a nonevent. Having begun to raise rates in December, the central bank was expected to stand pat while signaling more hikes later on. Now, after several bone-jarring weeks,… Continue reading Blame The Fed
MarketWatch – Mark Hulbert: Investors are still too bullish despite the stock market correction The proof: They cheered Wednesday’s late-day rally even though equities tanked The stock market’s plunge won’t come to an end until pessimism and despair become a lot more widespread. And that could be a while, since the stock market timer community… Continue reading Stock Market Sentiment
Bloomberg.com – Investors Pull $4.9 Billion From Corporate Junk-Bond Funds Global investors yanked the second-highest weekly amount from high-yield bond funds in the past year, as a commodities selloff leaves some companies struggling to repay debts. About $4.9 billion was pulled from speculative-grade debt funds in the week ended Jan. 20, according to a Bank… Continue reading Junk Bond Flows
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Kuroda Advises China to Impose Capital Controls to Defend Yuan Davos delegates predict China will avoid hard landing Lagarde says massive use of reserves not a good idea Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said China should impose capital controls to defend the yuan rather than keep… Continue reading Defending The Yuan
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Blizzard? Here’s the Weather Effect on the Economy You’re Not Thinking Of Weather often takes the blame for denting economic output. It rarely gets credit for helping it along. Indeed, a severe winter storm blanketing much of the East Coast will likely affect… Continue reading Weather’s Effect On Jobs
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Comment For several months we have highlighted the first two charts below. They both show tremendous new money going into both energy (stock) and crude oil ETFs. The black line in the top panel shows the price of crude (first chart) or energy stocks (second chart). The blue line in the second panel shows the… Continue reading Massive Buying Into A Collasping Oil Market, An Example
<Click on chart for larger image> The Economist – Who’s afraid of cheap oil? Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people… Continue reading Freaking Out Over Low Oil Prices
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – China’s Intervention Vow Seen Making Stocks Even Less Attractive Vice President Li said state willing to support equities Aberdeen Asset says intervention reduces credibility The last thing China’s stock market needs is more meddling by the state. That’s the view of Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Sumitomo… Continue reading Doubts About Chinese Intervention
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Gillian Tett: The tiny shifts that can signal huge changes Deep in the bowels of the system, financial flows are switching course It looks as though this trend is gathering momentum: the Institute of International Finance estimates that almost $700bn of funds left China last… Continue reading More Chinese Treasury Selling