The Reformed Broker – Joshua M. Brown: The “Smart Money” can’t even fake it anymore An incredibly telling story at Reuters about Morgan Stanley’s hedge fund conference in Palm Beach this past week, where enthusiasm and confidence seem to have fallen to an all-time low. And the weird thing is, this was supposed to be the… Continue reading Another Look At Active vs Passive Management
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – How Did Wall Street Miss the Mark on Oil? For the most part, oil market analysts at major Wall Street banks were slow to recognize the collapse in oil prices over the last 18 months, or to see how dramatically deep it would be. The… Continue reading Predicting Oil Prices
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – IPO Market Comes to a Standstill There were no U.S. IPOs in January, the first monthlong drought since September 2011, when the eurozone crisis was in full swing and the debt rating of the U.S. had just been downgraded, according to data provider Dealogic.… Continue reading IPOs
<Click on graphic for larger image> American Enterprise Institute (AEI) – James Pethokoukis:It’s official: A lost decade for the US economy US real GDP growth was just 0.7% annualized in the fourth quarter, a weak way to end 2015. Never like to see the Zero Handle. Not that it was such a great full year,… Continue reading A Lost Decade For U.S. GDP
None Today
Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled “On Oil China, The Economy and The Fed.” The mp3 replay, webcast replay and handout are below: Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/012816.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=280″] Webcast [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/012816.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /]
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Economy Grew Anemic 0.7% in Fourth Quarter A sign of flagging momentum amid global weakness and financial market turmoil The U.S. economy sputtered in the final months of 2015, a sign of flagging momentum amid global weakness and financial market turmoil. Gross domestic… Continue reading Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
Politico Magazine – ‘Trump Could Do It’: An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa The one big message that the markets are delivering right now: Trump could win Iowa. And that has a lot to do with Sarah Palin, who from the market’s perspective, has given us an earth-shattering, game-changing event. Here are the numbers: On the… Continue reading Current Election Betting
Comment We view election betting markets as real-time polls. They aggregate all known information (or consensus thinking) in a format that can instantly change to new information. Poll aggregation does the same thing, but takes more time and effort. We do not view election betting as having a special ability to predict the future, but… Continue reading A Recent History of Election Betting Markets
<Click on graphgic for larger iamge> The Wall Street Journal – Banks Rip Up Oil Forecasts Analysts scramble to lower their predictions Want to know how much further oil prices might fall? Don’t ask Wall Street. Analysts at big banks have been scrambling to lower their oil-market forecasts after prices plunged to 12-year lows below… Continue reading Wall Street Faces Reality – They Cannot Predict Crude Oil
<Click on graphic for larger iamge> The Wall Street Journal – Bank of Japan Introduces Negative Interest Rates The Japanese central bank’s unexpected move seen as change of direction Japan’s central bank stunned the markets Friday by setting the country’s first negative interest rates, in a desperate attempt to keep the economy from sliding back… Continue reading Japan Goes Negative
The Financial Times – Ed Morse: Welcome to the new oil order Forget Opec, it is time to get a grip of permanent realities of the market The new world is one of three giant producers whose combined liquids output is about 40 per cent of world markets. All three of them play a role… Continue reading Is OPEC Done?