The New York Times – Steve Eisman: Don’t Break Up the Banks. They’re Not Our Real Problem. IN the movie “The Big Short,” Steve Carell plays a slightly altered version of me. In real life, I am a portfolio manager and financial services analyst who over a 25-year career has, at times, been highly critical… Continue reading Big Short Characters Disagree
<Click on chart for larger image> Japan Today – Market close to reading last rites over Abenomics When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched his three-pronged program to revive Japan’s stagnant, deflationary economy three years ago, the stock market cheered every step along the way. Not any more. The “third arrow” of Abenomics—reforms to make the… Continue reading Is Abenomics Officially A Failure?
The Financial Times – Bloomberg says he is eyeing 2016 run for the White House Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire media owner and former New York mayor, has stated for the first time that he is considering a run for US president, a move that would dramatically reshape the 2016 race for the White House. Speaking… Continue reading The Potential Impact Of A Bloomberg Third Party Candidacy
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<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – Here Comes $20 Oil Oil could fall as low as $20 a barrel in the first half of this year, recovering to $55 by year end. That could help drive stocks, which have closely followed oil prices, much higher. Oil bulls, take heart. The last leg of… Continue reading Oil Capitulation Talk?
<Click on graphic for larger image> CNBC – Producers keep pumping, even with oil prices falling When a commodity costs more to produce than the current market price, producers usually stop producing it. When it comes to U.S. crude oil, that’s not happening, according to an analysis of global oil production by Wood Mackenzie, a… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply/Demand
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – A Record Number of Investors Are Piling Into Oil Money managers may not agree where oil prices are headed, but they are increasingly eager to place their bets. Total wagers on the price of crude climbed to the highest since the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission began… Continue reading Betting On Crude
CNBC – America’s earnings recession deepens Corporate America, we have a problem. The fourth quarter of 2015 looks to be the third straight quarter in which S&P 500 companies’ profits fell versus the year prior. This would be the first time this has happened since 2009 (when profits fell in Q1, Q2 and Q3). The… Continue reading An Earnings Update
Bloomberg.com – Rubio’s Stumble Opens Door to Underdogs in Final New Hampshire Sprint The Florida senator’s poor performance in Saturday night’s Republican debate has energized his rivals. The final weekend before New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary was a steady one for long-time front-runners Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. But a trio of governors who need… Continue reading Did Rubio Blow It Saturday Night?
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China’s Forex Reserves Plunge to More-Than-Three-Year Low China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in more than three years in January, raising questions about how long Beijing can keep burning through the rainy-day funds to defend the… Continue reading China Capital Outflows Continue At $100 Billion/Month
Bloomberg Business – Here Comes the New Divergence as Central Banks Amend Hike Plans Fed, BOE seen less likely to increase rates this year The divergence among global central banks that was supposed to drive financial markets in 2016 barely lasted a month. Coming into the year, investors were figuring out how they would trade… Continue reading Central Bank Policy Around The World
The Wall Street Journal – Ben Eisen: Why a Recession Could Arrive Without a Yield Curve Warning Investors may not be able to count on a once-reliable economic warning bell to ring before the next recession…with short-term rates already so low, long-term rates would have to go very close to zero for the yield curve… Continue reading Arguing The Yield Curve’s Predictive Ability