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February 17, 2016
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What Are Volatile Markets Telling Us?
February 16, 2016
Comment On Thursday, February 18, 2016 at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us next Thursday as we discuss how volatility in the markets reconciles with economic fundamentals. Click here… Continue reading What Are Volatile Markets Telling Us?
Newsclips
Why Markets Are Bothered By Negative Rates Now
February 16, 2016
Why are negative interest rates now bad for stocks, but were good when BOJ announced them Jan 29, and irrelevant when ECB imposed them? — Greg Ip (@greg_ip) February 11, 2016 MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Will the Public React to Negative Rates With Safes, Mattresses? Everyone’s talking about negative interest rates, but the general public… Continue reading Why Markets Are Bothered By Negative Rates Now
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An Earnings Update
February 16, 2016
Comment The chart below shows the Q4 2015 earnings beat rate for the S&P 500. As of Friday, February 12, 376 of the S&P 500 have reported Q4 2015 earnings. 71% beat expectations. As the chart below shows, this is about average for this metric. <Click on chart for larger image> The next chart shows… Continue reading An Earnings Update
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Recession Probability Using The Yield Curve – Another Interpretation
February 16, 2016
Comment On Friday we offered the following: The chart below shows the likelihood of a recession in 12 months based on two indicators. The blue line shows the probability according to a Bloomberg survey of economists that started in 2008. The red line is based on a yield curve formula developed by New York Federal… Continue reading Recession Probability Using The Yield Curve – Another Interpretation
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A Bullish Treasury Story!
February 16, 2016
Barron’s – Hold Your Treasury Bonds Close Global market conditions have created a huge demand for U.S. Treasuries that is unlikely to dissipate. It was a wild week for the usually tame Treasury market. Fueled by a rush into safe-haven assets, the benchmark 10-year note fell to the breathtakingly low yield of 1.53% Thursday morning… Continue reading A Bullish Treasury Story!
Newsclips
More On Oil And Stocks
February 16, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Shares Jump From Europe to Japan as Oil Holds Rally; Yuan Soars Absence of post-holiday China selloff bolstered sentiment Draghi said ECB will act should turmoil hit price stability Stocks came back with a vengeance amid speculation losses that sent global equities into a bear market had… Continue reading More On Oil And Stocks
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Election Update
February 16, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – Trump and Sanders: Are They Killing the Stock Market? U.S. stocks have fallen sharply since Trump and Sanders began rising in popularity in the polls. It could be more than coincidence. The rise of outsider presidential candidates Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is more than a fascinating… Continue reading Election Update
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German “Bail-In” Plan
February 16, 2016
The Telegraph (UK) – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: German ‘bail-in’ plan for government bonds risks blowing up the euro ‘If I were a politician in Italy, I’d want my own currency as fast as possible: that is the only way to avoid going bankrupt,’ said German ‘Wise Man’ A new German plan to impose “haircuts” on holders… Continue reading German “Bail-In” Plan
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China Losing Control?
February 16, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line Investors give up the wait for a leadership that has stalled on reform Sentiment on China among global investors has always veered between exaggerated optimism and excessive pessimism. Even so, the latest bout of gloom is… Continue reading China Losing Control?
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More On Easy Money
February 16, 2016
Bloomberg.com – These Are the Things That Correlate With the Fed’s ‘Easy Money’ All about that (monetary) base. Faced with the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, the U.S. Federal Reserve did the only thing it could: flood the financial system with liquidity. The move to so-called easy money arguably saved the world from a… Continue reading More On Easy Money
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A “Freeze” In Crude Oil Production?
February 16, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle Top oil exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on Tuesday to freeze output levels but said the deal was contingent on other producers joining in – a major sticking point with Iran absent from the… Continue reading A “Freeze” In Crude Oil Production?