The Wall Street Journal – Iraq Follows Iran by Avoiding Commitment to Oil Freeze Iraq on Thursday stopped short of saying it would curb production of oil to prop up sagging prices, saying negotiations are still ongoing between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said his country… Continue reading Crude Oil’s Supply/Demand
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bank of Japan Baffled by Negative Reaction to Negative-Rate Policy A clash Thursday between Japan’s central-bank chief and lawmakers highlighted the downside of negative interest rates: They are making the Japanese public feel negative. Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, who announced the nation’s… Continue reading The Negative Side Of Negative Rates
The Wall Street Journal – Editorial: The Political War on Cash So long, Ben Franklin. Politicians want to coerce you to spend. These are strange monetary times, with negative interest rates and central bankers deemed to be masters of the universe. So maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that politicians and central bankers are now waging… Continue reading More About Getting Rid Of Cash
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: How Sanders, Trump Threaten Market Confidence Markets don’t usually pay a lot of attention to presidential elections. For all the campaign theatrics, presidents from both parties, once in office, tend to hew to economic orthodoxy, whether on free trade or the independence of the Federal Reserve. This would… Continue reading The Markets & The Election
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Seeing More Cause for Pause on Rates Federal Reserve officials appear increasingly reluctant to raise short-term interest rates at their March policy meeting, and possibly beyond, amid market turbulence, China’s dimmed outlook and indications that inflation could stay at low levels longer than expected. Officials struggled with… Continue reading The FOMC Minutes
<Click on graphic for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Gig Economy Attracts Many Workers, Few Full-Time Jobs The share of Americans earning income from digital platforms such as Uber and Airbnb is growing rapidly, but those gigs typically supplement incomes rather than replace full-time work. Nearly 1% of U.S. adults earned income… Continue reading The Growing Gig Economy
The Financial Times – Threats to hedge fund managers’ ‘secret sauce’ Hedge fund managers attempt to deliver “alpha”, the returns over and above the market itself, through a staggering array and diversity of strategies, ranging from betting on global currency movements to surfing on the corporate acquisitions boom. The promise of this alpha is what… Continue reading Replicating Hedge Fund Returns
Bloomberg.com – Hedge Funds Will Pay for You to Own Small-Cap ETFs In certain pockets of the industry, ETFs are consistently beating the return on the indexes they’re meant to track. Theoretically, an ETF should lag its index by roughly the amount of its fee to investors. But that doesn’t account for revenue from securities… Continue reading Another Instance Where ETF NAV Deviates From Underlying Security
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/021816.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: Topics/Summary Negative Short-Rates Negative Long-Rates Talking About Negative Rates Why Markets Are Bothered By Negative Rates Now? End Paper Money? Market Expectations More On Market Expectations Flat Forward Curves Double-Bottom? Morgan Survey ETF Flows Treasury Flows Capital Outflows From China… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Comment On Thursday, February 18, 2016 at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us next Thursday as we discuss how volatility in the markets reconciles with economic fundamentals. Click here… Continue reading What Are Volatile Markets Telling Us?
Comment For months we have been chronicling one of the most unusual investing patterns we have ever come across. It is shown in the chart below which is compiled from 24 long-only crude oil ETFs. As the price of crude oil has been plunging (black line), the cumulative inflows of new money into long crude… Continue reading Understanding The Unusual Nature Of Crude Oil ETFs