<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality Energy-state slumps put economists on alert for wider decline So far, Federal Reserve officials view the patches of hardship as isolated and the chance of a recession as remote. Chair Janet Yellen told Congress on Feb. 10… Continue reading States Already In Recession
Bloomberg Business – Weidmann Remains Upbeat on Economy as Inflation Risks Rise There are grounds to be positive about the economic outlook for Germany and the euro area even as the inflation outlook worsens, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said. “All things considered, the economic outlook for the euro area is thus… Continue reading The ECB Discusses The Economic Outlook
Evan Soltas – Bad Energy Debt and the Banks Usually, a falling oil price is good news for just about everybody. Consumers benefit from cheaper gasoline. Investors expect higher profits from companies that use oil to make their products. Only the energy industry gets squeezed — and that’s too small, in the grand scheme of the economy,… Continue reading How The Energy Industry Gets Squeezed
Bloomberg Business – Another Oil Crash Is Coming, and There May Be No Recovery Superior electric cars are on their way, and they could begin to wreck oil markets within a decade. It’s time for oil investors to start taking electric cars seriously. In the next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling… Continue reading How The Rise Of Electric Cars Could Crash Oil
DealBook (NYT Blog) – A New Breed of Trader on Wall Street: Coders With a Ph.D. Mr. Shah fits the profile of the up-and-coming E.T.F. trader: He is young, has a master’s degree in quantitative finance at Georgia Tech and is as much a writer of code as he is a trader. On an old-school… Continue reading Coding On Wall Street
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<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – BlackRock Warns Bond Traders They’re Underestimating the Fed Koesterich says strengthening inflation may help prompt Fed Traders see less than 50% chance of rate increase in 2016 BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, is warning bond investors they’re not prepared… Continue reading Will The Fed Defy The Market?
Comment Is the crowd bullish or bearish on bonds? It depends on which crowd one is looking at. Shorter-term traders are very bullish, middle-term managers are neutral and longer-term economists and professional forecasters remain very bearish. Short-Term Traders On the short-term end, traders have been piling into longer-maturity Treasury ETFs (green line). <Click on chart… Continue reading Bond Market Sentiment
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Use of Fed’s Foreign Repo Program Grows Increase in overnight deposits by overseas institutions can have wide effects on lending Foreign central banks have sharply increased their overnight deposits in a Federal Reserve program that pays more than some prevailing money-market rates, the latest… Continue reading Foreign Repo
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters.com – Veterans of 1980s oil glut say this price slump, too, will last For oil industry players active during the 1980s bust, the current drop in prices carries echoes of those desperate days. Interviews with some of those involved in that period reveal that while there is little… Continue reading Saudi Production, Is It The 1980s All Over Again?
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<Click on graphic for larger image> MarketWatch – Sovereign-wealth funds could pull another $404 billion out of stock market Funds selling easily liquidated assets to shore up finance Sovereign-wealth funds, many of which were established by oil-rich nations to manage their petroleum-related windfalls, have been aggressive sellers of stocks and other securities as crude prices… Continue reading More Sovereign Wealth Fund Selling?