<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – German Bund yields drop to 10-month low Remember last year’s spring madness that crammed 10-year German Bund yields close to zero? Déjà vu time. Now, German Bunds are ending the month with a jump, pushing the 10-year yield down another 3 basis points (0.03 percentage… Continue reading Low Rate Environment
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CNBC – Recession sign is in play and has 81% accuracy Since corporate profits turned negative in mid-2015, Wall Street has pondered whether it’s just a passing phase or a signal of something worse. History strongly suggests the latter. Recessions have followed consecutive quarters of earnings declines 81 percent of the time, according to an… Continue reading Are Earnings Signaling A Recession?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – JPMorgan Has New Theory About What Really Caused the Flash Rally `Data suggest the cash market broke first,’ analyst says Vanguard Treasuries trader among those using futures more nowAmong the evidence they cite is the fact that it was much easier to trade in the futures market… Continue reading Revisiting The Bond Market Flash Yield Crash
Bloomberg.com – China Flags Scope for Policy Stimulus, Tweaks Monetary Stance Comments signal more monetary easing this year, Citic says Finance minister: China still has room to loosen fiscal policy China’s central bank tweaked the description of its monetary policy stance to reflect a recent ramp-up in liquidity injections and moves to guide money market… Continue reading One Day After Chinese Stocks Plunge 7%, The PBoC Promises More, A Lot More
Bloomberg.com – Moody’s Fate in Subprime Probe to Be Decided Soon by U.S. Probe is one of Justice Department’s last looks at crisis era S&P reached $1.5 billion settlement in 2015 over bond ratings The U.S. Justice Department will decide in the next few months whether it will sue Moody’s Corp. for allegedly inflating ratings… Continue reading Credit Ratings Of Subprime Before The Crisis
Reuters – German finmin: expansive policies may have laid foundation of next crisis Germany’s Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday that the expansive fiscal and monetary policies implemented by governments to spur growth might have laid the foundation of the next economic crisis. Those debt-financed fiscal policies and accommodative monetary policies had been… Continue reading The Germans Warn About Too Much From Central Banks?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Bond Vigilantes Push $258 Billion of Oil Debt Past Junk Yields on lowest-rated IG energy bonds soar to junk levels `Geopolitical game of chicken’ intensifies at IHS CERAWeek They have sold off hundreds of oil fields, eliminated thousands of jobs and slashed millions of dollars from capital… Continue reading Oil And Debt
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – GOP Debate Barrage May Be Too Late for Trump’s Rivals Attacks from Rubio and Cruz show the front-runner’s opponents believe they have waited too long Eight months after Donald Trump declared he was running for president, six months after the first debate and two… Continue reading A Republican Debate That Changed Little?
MarketWatch – ‘Smart-beta’ investing guru is now warning of a crash Rob Arnott says the popular strategy has become too popular Dump “quality” stocks and buy “value” stocks. That’s the call from Rob Arnott, the legendary financial guru and chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif. He says stocks bearing high-quality… Continue reading Crash Warning!
Bloomberg.com – Hedge-Fund Assets Below $3 Trillion for First Time Since 2014 Assets managed by hedge funds globally last month fell to less than $3 trillion for the first time since the industry hit the milestone in May 2014, according to data from eVestment. Investors pulled a net $21.5 billion, the most in the opening… Continue reading Hedge Fund Assets Slump
Fortune – Here’s The Latest Bank to Predict a Global Recession The latest warning about the health of the global economy has been raised by Citigroup economists Ebrahim Rahbari, Willem Buiter, and Cesar Rojas who argue in a report issued Wednesday that a the chance of a global recession is a “high and rising risk… Continue reading A Global Recession?