<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Hedge Funds Turn Bullish on Oil Despite Glut Several hedge funds are starting to bet that assets in the battered energy sector are through the worst of their dismal run. Oil is down nearly 70% since June 2014… Continue reading Hedge Funds Still Bullish On Crude Oil
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Investors Turn Finicky on Corporate Bonds High-grade corporate issuance is up, but for lower-rated firms, it has been a different story Bond-market turbulence in 2016 is widening the gap between corporate haves and have-nots, a dynamic that threatens to weaken the U.S. economic recovery… Continue reading Investors Nervous About Corporate Bonds
Seeking Alpha – Negative Interest Rates In The U.S.? Janet Yellen raised eyebrows earlier this month when she hinted at the possibility of negative interest rates in the U.S. “We wouldn’t take those off the table” were her exact words. Since then, I’ve gotten a few questions about whether negative rates could be a useful… Continue reading Negative Rates
February Total Return Review: A Look At Stock, Bond And Commodity Total Returns The attached tables and comments update total returns through February. We also look at the total returns of the S&P 500, the long bond and the Bloomberg commodity index. Comment The chart below shows year-to-date total returns for 30-year Treasury bonds back… Continue reading 30-Year Off To One Of Its Best Starts Ever
Reuters.com – Sub-zero central banks may just chase inflation expectations lower Hyperactive central banks warn of ‘unmoored’ inflation expectations but may well be weighing the anchor themselves. Skewed by the oil price collapse of the past 20 months, headline inflation rates across Europe and Japan are currently near zero or even falling. Some economists now… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
e21 – Caroline Baum: Janet Yellen Is Right: Expansions Don’t Die of Old Age I think it’s a myth that expansions die of old age… So the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn’t lead me to believe that… its days are numbered.” – Janet Yellen, Dec. 16, 2015. “The trouble with… Continue reading Janet Yellen On Economic Expansion
Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios In this study, we look at how the markets perform under various deflation/inflation scenarios. This study stretches as far back as 1801 and covers stocks, “real” stocks, long term interest rates, “real” long term interest rates, short term interest rates, and the CRB. We also compare returns before… Continue reading Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios
<Click on chart for larger image> The New York Times – Auto Sales Up in February, Helped by Cheap Gas and Easy Credit Several automakers on Tuesday reported substantial increases in sales in the United States in February, as consumers continued to take advantage of cheap gas and easy credit to buy new vehicles. Over… Continue reading Auto Sales Rise
The Financial Times – Senior Fed policymaker bullish on US economy and inflation target John Williams does not see any slackening of demand and says upward moves in rates would be gradual John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said he did not understand the recent spate of gloomy warnings about… Continue reading Fed Presidents Differ On Outlook
Reuters.com – (March 1, 2016 10:00 ET) Wall St gains as weak data spurs stimulus hopes Wall Street was higher on Tuesday morning, led by financial stocks, as weak manufacturing data globally raised hopes of a further easing of monetary policies. Manufacturing activity across much of Asia shrank in February, with China falling for a… Continue reading Reuters Covers All Angles
The Wall Street Journal – In Japan, the Government Gets Paid to Borrow Money For the first time, the government issues benchmark 10-year bonds with negative yields Japan, the world’s most heavily indebted nation, is getting paid to borrow. The Japanese government for the first time Tuesday issued benchmark 10-year bonds with negative yields, meaning… Continue reading More On Negative Rates In Japan
Forbes.com – Why Big Government Is Waging War Against Cash The move to destroy cash feeds into the economic commissars’ fantasy that they can better control the economy. Policymakers in Washington, Tokyo and the EU think the reason that their economies are stagnant is that ornery people aren’t spending and investing the way they should.… Continue reading The End Of Cash?