<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Junk-Bond Rebound Signals Easing Fear Market is closely watched for clues about the state of the U.S. economy The riskiest part of the U.S. corporate-bond market is staging a comeback, marking an upswing in investor confidence following a turbulent start to the year. Returns… Continue reading About The Junk Rebound
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – Brexit Referendum Risk Premium Estimating the ‘Referendum Premium’ for GBPUSD We estimate GBPUSD using solely interest rate differentials, economic data changes / surprises, and equity returns. We are looking to estimate fair value while excluding Brexit probabilities and its impact on BOE policy timing and CDS.… Continue reading Measure BRexit’s Effect On The British Pound
Reuters.com – Hedge funds turn strongly bullish on oil: Kemp Hedge funds have switched from a very bearish view on crude oil prices at the end of last year to a much more bullish one, especially for Brent. Such funds and other money managers had amassed a combined net long position in the three main… Continue reading Crude Oil Flows
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Trend-following hedge fund strategies lead performance in 2016 Computer-driven hedge funds renowned for “trend-following” are beating their highly paid human counterparts so far this year after struggling to make money in four of the past five years. Now as stock markets and commodity prices continue… Continue reading Human Portfolio Not Needed, The Rise Of The Machines
The Wall Street Journal – George Melloan: Rising Global Debt and the Deflation Threat Years of deficit spending and near-zero interest rates have led to massive borrowing but little growth. Today we’re in a new age of anxiety, with voters opting for anti-establishment outsiders like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Americans are not experiencing deflation,… Continue reading Deflation Fears
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Fed officials set battle lines on rate hikes ahead of March meet After a long wait for inflation to accelerate, U.S. Federal Reserve officials face a complex and possibly divisive debate over whether recent evidence of rising prices is strong enough to move ahead with planned rate… Continue reading A March Hike?
Arbor Research – Peter Forbes: Diminishing Global Risks Fueling Rebound in Metals and Miners The peak in global risk fears on February 11th marked a turning point for global markets. Broad markets surged higher on stronger US economic data, Chinese stimulus and dovish central bank expectations. This mix proved particularly potent for base metals and… Continue reading Global Risks
<Click on graphic for larger image> Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis – A Follow-Up to Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations The figures below provide two alternative assumptions for the growth of nonenergy CPI components, denoted g. The first figure displays results when g is 2.18 percent. This value corresponds to the annualized growth rate… Continue reading Oil And Inflation Expectations
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Long-term Japanese bonds set new record lows Longer dated Japanese government bond yields declined to new depths on Tuesday, with the seven-, 10-, and 30-year benchmark yields all setting new record lows. While fresh record lows for the JGB market are not unusual after the… Continue reading Japan Goes More Negative
The New York Post – John Crudele: February’s promising job report is a little misleading You can’t see it because of the limitations of print, but I’ve climbed a tree for today’s column and I am sitting way out on a limb. That’s the creative way of saying I’m going to make some tricky predictions, so… Continue reading Jobs
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – World’s Biggest Bond Traders Give Themselves No Margin of Safety Yields on $2.5 trillion of euro-area bonds are now negative JPMorgan, Standard Life say repeat of 2015 selloff is unlikely The world’s biggest bond investors are leaving themselves with almost no room for error. More than $2.5… Continue reading Draghi And Negative Rates
The Wall Street Journal – Justin Lahart: Why the Fed Isn’t Out of Ammo The Federal Reserve actually has plenty of ammunition left, but it doesn’t work in its conventional weapons The Federal Reserve may actually have plenty of ammunition at its disposal for when the next downturn hits. It is just that much of… Continue reading Does The Fed Have More Ammo?