<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – By One Measure, S&P 500 Volatility Is Highest Since 1938 Violent swings are whipsawing stock investors more frequently than any year since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has moved at least 1 percent in either direction in 25 of 45 trading sessions so… Continue reading Most Volatile Markets Since 1938?
MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: How’s the economy? Depends on your political leanings The state of the U.S. economy is always an important consideration when voters go to the polls every four years to elect a president. Even in this bizarrest of bizarre campaigns, characterized by name-calling, mud-slinging and not-so-subtle references to male genitalia, the American… Continue reading How To Look At The Economy
The Financial Times – US Treasury market shows signs of stress Dislocation in the world’s biggest government bond market is sending warning signs of stress in the system, with dealers and hedge funds blaming tougher bank capital rules as they choose not to exploit the arbitrage opportunity. Investors are increasingly choosing to hold derivatives contracts… Continue reading Stressed Markets
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – This Market Is Wacky: Oil at $0, And Other Unlikely Inflation Expectations Look too hard at certain measures of U.S. inflation expectations and you might come away with unlikely conclusions. For example, that crude oil will be worth zero dollars a barrel in a few years’ time. Or that some prices… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
Bloomberg.com – Clash of the Bond Titans A fight is brewing between two types of debt that serve as guideposts for assets around the world. On one side, there’s the $13 trillion U.S. government debt market, which seems to be sending a steady message that growth is slowing and not picking up anytime soon. On… Continue reading A Tale Of Two Bond Markets: Government Debt vs. High Yield
The Wall Street Journal – What Crisis? Big Ratings Firms Stronger Than Ever S&P, Moody’s and Fitch issue more than 95% of global bond ratings, and profits are nearing all-time highs The three big ratings firms that played a central role in the last financial crisis never got a downgrade of their own. Investors still… Continue reading Credit Rating Agencies Are Back
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Due to website-related technological issues, we unfortunately have to cancel today’s conference call and Newsclips. We are working on getting the issue resolved and will reschedule at a later date. Bianco Research LLC
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Topics/Summary About Election Betting President Betting Looking Back To 2012 2008 Betting 2000 Betting The Markets Are Not Paying Attention … Yet The Press And The Election – Start With A Conclusion Trump Betting Republican Betting Brokered Convention Democratic Betting The “FBI Primary” A… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
Comment On March 10, 2016 at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us Thursday as we discuss the rebound in risk assets and how election betting can give unique insight… Continue reading On Rebounds And Election Betting
Comment With Q4 earnings now largely in the rearview mirror, the markets will begin to focus on Q1 2016 earnings season. As this process gets underway, results must be gauged in light of already lowered estimates from analysts. We have covered the gamed nature of earnings estimates many times in the past. In a nutshell,… Continue reading A Historical Look At Earnings
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Likely to Stand Pat on Rates, Keep Options Open for April or June Inflation and global growth concerns divide central bank officials on path of interest-rate increases For Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, that likely means crafting a message that gives the… Continue reading Odds Of Fed Raising In June Increase