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March 23, 2016
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Massive Buying In Crude Oil Again – Can Everyone Be Right?
March 22, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The black line in the top panel of the chart above shows the price of crude oil. Speculators’ net position is shown in blue in the second panel. This group breaks down into two categories – money managers (hedge funds) in red in the third panel and “other… Continue reading Massive Buying In Crude Oil Again – Can Everyone Be Right?
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The Relationship Between Stocks And Oil
March 22, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Oil and gas: Debt fears flare up The $3tn debt mountain following the sector’s borrowing binge threatens further destabilisation Conventional wisdom has held that low oil prices tend to be good for equity markets and the economy, since cheaper fuel boosts profits and consumers have… Continue reading The Relationship Between Stocks And Oil
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Is BRexit More Likely Because Of The Brussels Attack?
March 22, 2016
<Click on image to view video> Comment This morning Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg TV talking about the market’s reaction to the terrorist attack in Brussels. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. The chart below shows the betting for BRexit on Predictit.com. Real-time… Continue reading Is BRexit More Likely Because Of The Brussels Attack?
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Election Betting Update
March 22, 2016
Comment Arizona, Utah and Idaho (Democrat only) hold primaries today. The odds of these contests according to Predictit.com are highlighted in the right-hand column. Trump is expected to win Arizona. Cruz is expected to win Utah. The interesting story is on the Democrat side. Clinton is expected to win Arizona while Sanders is expected to… Continue reading Election Betting Update
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Trump And The Markets
March 22, 2016
Barron’s – John Kimelman: How a President Trump Would Affect Markets Two writers have their own spin on a topic that Barron’s addressed in a recent cover story. Two weeks ago, I wrote a cover story for Barron’s magazine arguing that Hillary Clinton would be better for markets as president than Donald Trump. The story… Continue reading Trump And The Markets
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More On Fed Credibility
March 22, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The chart above shows the market has discounted the probability of a Fed hike in April after the dovish Fed meeting last week. Below are several stories highlighting hawkish talk from Fed officials which had no significant effect on this market. Bloomberg Business – Two Fed Officials Point… Continue reading More On Fed Credibility
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Repo Fails
March 22, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Repo Failures at Highest Level Since 2008 Shift in sentiment is cited after Feb. 11 low for U.S. stock indexes, oil-futures prices and Treasury yields Settlement failures in Treasury repurchase transactions in March hit their highest level since 2008, underscoring concerns on Wall Street… Continue reading Repo Fails
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The Right Time For “Helicopter Money”
March 22, 2016
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: The Time and Place for ‘Helicopter Money’ The promise of monetizing the debt is often too good to be true. That doesn’t mean it ought to be taboo, Greg Ip says. With fiscal and monetary policy reaching their limits, the search for new solutions to the world’s low-growth,… Continue reading The Right Time For “Helicopter Money”
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Fed President Bullard Speaks
March 22, 2016
Reuters.com – Bullard says Fed’s goals largely met, rates should edge up The U.S. central bank’s inflation and employment goals have essentially been met and it would be “prudent” to edge interest rates higher, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday. “Prudent policy suggests edging the policy rate and the balance sheet towards… Continue reading Fed President Bullard Speaks
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Odds Of A Recession
March 22, 2016
24/7 Wall Street Journal – 15 Reasons That US Recession Risks Have Almost Vanished for 2016 The end of 2015 brought the Federal Reserve’s first fed funds rate hike in years. Federal funds went to a whopping 0.25% to 0.50% target range, more than accommodative. At the end of 2015 and the start of 2016,… Continue reading Odds Of A Recession
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Liquidity In The Markets
March 22, 2016
Business Insider – Everyone is worried about the thing markets need most, but they’re not asking the right questions In short, investors want to shift big positions quickly, and when they can’t, they complain about liquidity. There’s an argument that the pre-crisis conditions that allowed them to buy and sell in size with ease weren’t… Continue reading Liquidity In The Markets