Bloomberg.com – Behind U.S. GDP Data Is Reason for Recession Worry: Weak Profits Earnings fell in 2015 by most in seven years, figures show Drop is `bad news’ for the economy, IHS’s Behravesh says On the face of it, the latest government update on how the U.S. economy performed in the fourth quarter looked a… Continue reading Weak Profits
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Henny Sender: Earnings season set to cool Wall Street’s improving mood Inflows into risk assets including junk debt and shares in recent days continued strongly in the wake of the Fed’s cautious note in mid-March. Yet, despite the fact that the Fed is once again… Continue reading Looking Ahead To Q1 Earnings
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Coming to the Oil Patch: Bad Loans to Outnumber the Good In response, several major banks are reducing their exposure to the energy sector Bad loans are likely to outnumber good ones soon in the U.S. oil patch, an indication of the pressure on… Continue reading The Correlation Between Stocks & Oil
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – El-Erian: Markets could fall 10% in coming months A “range-bound” market could soon swing more dramatically, and an “overshoot” may send stocks 10 percent lower in the coming months, Mohamed El-Erian said Thursday. “Don’t be surprised if you see a 5 to 10 percent move the other… Continue reading Stock Corrections
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Asset managers: The tide turns Consumers are finally revolting against an outdated industry FOR decades looking after other people’s money has been a lucrative business. Profit margins in the asset-management industry were 39% in 2014, according to BCG, a consultancy, compared with 8% in consumer goods… Continue reading Active vs. Passive Management
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Inflation Worries Swing From Too Little to Too Much Not too long ago, everyone was fretting about a lack of inflation. Now those worries are swinging in the opposite direction. An index of U.S. consumer prices last week showed that core inflation, which strips… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: The Decline of Dissent at the Fed In an interview, the new centrist in Dallas backs slow rate hikes, as officials with dissenting views have departed Dallas Fed President Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Harvard Business School professor and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive, is part of a… Continue reading Where Have All The Dissents Gone?
CNN/Money – Junk territory: U.S. corporate debt ratings near 15-year low Red flags are rising on Corporate America’s debt. The average rating on U.S. corporate debt has hit nearly a 15-year low, according to a new report by Standard & Poor’s. “We believe corporate default rates could increase over the next few years,” according to… Continue reading Junk Bonds
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – Steve Liesman: Don’t trust those GDP numbers An in-depth analysis by CNBC of the government’s reports on gross domestic product suggests large and persistent errors that should give investors, business executives and policymakers pause in relying on the data for key decisions. CNBC looked at each quarterly… Continue reading GDP Revisions
<Click on chart for larger image> The Atlanta Fed – Latest forecast: 1.4 percent — March 24, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.4 percent on March 24, down from 1.9 percent on March 16. After this morning’s durable goods manufacturing… Continue reading GDPNow – Q1 2016 GDP Now Down To 1.4%
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Beijing Quietly Signals Growing Market Confidence Authorities give tacit nods to margin trading and short selling, both officially discouraged since last summer’s crash Although Chinese securities regulators never banned margin trading or short selling, they made their disapproval of both clear, and discouraged brokers… Continue reading Shorting Chinese Stocks
<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – When the Fed’s Bullard Speaks, the Market Listens The St. Louis Fed chief’s words can push shares up…or down, as they did last week. Also, the coming trouble in China. In his habit of speaking early and often, Bullard has developed a nearly unequaled ability to move… Continue reading Bullard’s Effect On The Markets