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April 25, 2016
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Talking Negative Rates
April 22, 2016
Comment Jim Bianco was on CNBC yesterday with Rick Santelli discussing negative rates and the markets. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. One of the things Jim highlighted was Draghi’s strong response to continued German criticism. This is detailed below. Bloomberg.com – Draghi… Continue reading Talking Negative Rates
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Do We Believe Oil Has Bottomed Or Do We Need Oil To Bottom?
April 22, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> The Economist – Oil markets: Drill will America, not OPEC, decides the fate of global oil markets The real freeze, says John Castellano of Alix Partners, a debt consultancy, is taking place in America. Shale producers that borrowed heavily to increase production in the boom years are likely to… Continue reading Do We Believe Oil Has Bottomed Or Do We Need Oil To Bottom?
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Hating Stocks
April 22, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Barry Ritholtz: The Thrill Is Gone From Owning Stocks Before the Great Recession, almost two-thirds of Americans owned stocks. That number has since fallen to a little more than half, as you can see from the chart [above]: [T]here are good reasons to be concerned about the… Continue reading Hating Stocks
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Why Stock Picking Is Not Working Anymore
April 22, 2016
DiMartino Booth – Distress Testing the Efficient Frontier Writing up to 16 markets briefs per year for nearly a decade inside the Fed required no small amount of title-writing technique. One of the most memorable of these immortalized in early 2013 was “Fifty Shades of Glaze,” which touched on the very subject of investor complacency… Continue reading Why Stock Picking Is Not Working Anymore
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Problems In Credit Land
April 22, 2016
The Financial Times – Junk downgrades already outpace 2015 Commodities squeeze accelerates downgrades in torrid first quarter More companies were downgraded to junk status by Moody’s in the first three months of the year than in the whole of 2015. In total, 51 companies were pushed into junk territory, up from eight in the fourth… Continue reading Problems In Credit Land
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FOMC Expectations
April 22, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Shift in Rate View Upends Markets Markets reversed sharply on Thursday, with the dollar ending higher and oil prices giving up big early gains, as global investors grapple with the prospect that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected…While investors still… Continue reading FOMC Expectations
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Economic Growth Slows
April 22, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Arbor Quantitative Analytics – Contrarian Signal – Below Average Economic Growth at Extreme The Citigroup Economic Data Change Index (CEDI) for the US has dropped to its lowest since November 2011. Accordingly, the NY Fed’s nowcast estimates GDP at a paltry 0.8% for Q1 2016 and 1.2% for Q2… Continue reading Economic Growth Slows
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China Struggles … Again
April 22, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – As Global Stocks Rally, China’s Markets Send More Ominous Signal Shanghai Composite is world’s worst performer this week Yuan is at lowest versus basket of peers since November 2014 As equities climb around the world, Chinese traders aren’t celebrating. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 3.9 percent… Continue reading China Struggles … Again
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Bulls vs. Bears And The U.S. Economy
April 22, 2016
MarketWatch.com – Caroline Baum: On the U.S. economy, is the glass half full, or half empty? “Two roads diverged,” Robert Frost wrote in what is perhaps the most popular poem of all time, “The Road Not Taken.” Frost’s opening words keep playing in my head every time an economic indicator is released, a global macro… Continue reading Bulls vs. Bears And The U.S. Economy
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Outlfows Continue For US Equity Funds
April 22, 2016
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Investors continue retreat from US equity funds US equity funds continue to bleed money as investors fearful of weak company earnings and wavering oil prices remain unconvinced by the market’s strong rally over the past week. Globally, equities lost $7.3bn for the week ending Wednesday,… Continue reading Outlfows Continue For US Equity Funds
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Japan And Negative Rates
April 22, 2016
Bloomberg Business – Lisa Abramowicz & Rani Molla: Zero Rates, Zero Success in Japan Japan took a big risk in January. To stimulate its economy, it adopted an unconventional negative interest-rate policy that penalized banks for hoarding too much money. The move has been an all-out failure. Not only has Japan drawn the ire of… Continue reading Japan And Negative Rates