<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Analysts Aren’t Buying the Oil Rally Even as oil rallies, analysts have barely nudged up their price forecasts as they worry that crude’s current gains might not be sustainable. The price of oil has jumped by around 70% from the decade-lows it hit earlier… Continue reading Crude Oil Projections
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<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – Expect Janet Yellen to remain dovish at this week’s Fed meeting: Strategist Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will likely strike a dovish tone on interest rates against a backdrop of middling economic growth and slowly rising inflation, Ameriprise Financial Chief Market Strategist David Joy said Tuesday. The… Continue reading Today’s FOMC Meeting
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Sterling hits 10-week peak as Brexit fears abate Sterling has risen to its highest level against the dollar since before the mid-February announcement of the Brexit referendum, in a sign that the foreign exchange market believes UK voters are less likely to leave the EU.… Continue reading Brexit And The British Pound
<Click on graphic for larger image Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – Latest forecast: 0.4 percent — April 26, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 26, up from 0.3 percent on April 19. After last Wednesday’s existing-home… Continue reading GDPNow Rises Slightly
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – No One Believes It, but Inflation Is a Pretty Good Bet Inflation wouldn’t have to roar higher for current market bets to be wrong Half of the investing game is figuring out what’s priced into markets. The other half is figuring out where and… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – U.S. Oil Rises Above $45 a Barrel for First Time Since November World Bank boosts oil price forecasts amid U.S. output cuts Oil climbed above $45 a barrel in New York for the first time since November after U.S. industry data showed a decline in crude… Continue reading Rising Crude Oil
<Click on graphic for larger image> MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: Uncertainty is a fact of life, so get used to it Economists have a special relationship with uncertainty. It represents the antithesis of what policy makers hope to accomplish through clear communication. One of the guiding principles of today’s economics is something called the rational… Continue reading Uncertainty
The Financial Times – Henny Sender: Japan’s negative rate experiment is an alarm bell for the US Ten weeks after BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda startled both financial markets and parliamentarians with Nirp, the yen has appreciated by some 8 per cent against the dollar. The stock market has rebounded sharply this month, however the Topix… Continue reading Negative Rates
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Weak Dollar Gives a Lift to U.S. Earnings All eyes are on the Federal Reserve to see if companies can continue to count on currency tailwinds U.S. corporations have been getting an unexpected boost from the weak dollar this year. Now all eyes are… Continue reading The Weak Dollar Helps U.S. Companies
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – A Crowd Is Your Enemy as Too Many Funds Worsen Earnings-Day Pain Popular shares fall more when earnings dissapoint: Bernstein One way of limiting losses this earnings season is to figure out what everyone else is buying and do the opposite. More than in past quarters,… Continue reading Popular Stocks Miss On Earnings
The Financial Times – Why edgier markets are here to stay in 2016 The longer the investment cycle goes on, the trickier markets will get Markets came into the year expecting a shift away from the narrative that characterised last year. Instead, we find ourselves facing the same markets — and volatility — that made… Continue reading Poor Earnings And Elections Keep Markets At A Standstill