<Click on graphic for larger image> FRB Atlanta – Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — May 17, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on May 17, down from 2.8 percent on May 13. The second-quarter forecast for real residential investment… Continue reading Atlanta’s GDP Now vs. New York’s GDP Nowcast
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – It looks like the market’s super-duo is breaking up Over the past few months, many market wags have pointed out with varying levels of incredulity that crude oil and the S&P 500 had begun to move in lockstep. Now their steps have become unfastened. After rising as… Continue reading Oil vs. Stocks
The Washington Post – A very bad sign for all but America’s biggest cities Americans in small counties are much less likely to start new businesses, a trend that jeopardizes the economic future of vast swaths of the country. That concentration of start-up activity is unusual, economists say. In the early 1990s recovery, 125 counties… Continue reading How The U.S. Economy Is Transforming
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – A Rare Look Inside China’s Central Bank Shows Slackening Resolve to Revamp Yuan Behind closed doors in March, some of China’s most prominent economists and bankers bluntly asked the People’s Bank of China to stop fighting the financial markets and let the value of… Continue reading China’s Currency Peg
<Click on graphic for larger image> LPL Financial – Would You Believe the S&P 500 Is in a Historically Tight Range? The S&P 500 first closed above the 2,000 level for the first time ever in August 2014. With that event came a lot of excitement, as the bull market was running strong. Incredibly, since… Continue reading More On Range-Bound Stocks
Bloomberg.com – Japan May Be Onto Something with Its New ETF-Style QE After exhausting other, more traditional forms of asset purchase, the Bank of Japan is kicking off its investments in several custom-made exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that screen specifically for companies that increase workers’ wages and carry out the most capital expenditure. The new… Continue reading Defending The BoJ’s ETF Purchases
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Hedge-Fund Manager Kyle Bass to Raise Fees If China Bet Hits Big Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass has his eye on the big score in his bet against China’s currency. In his new Hayman China Opportunities fund, slated to launch this summer, Mr. Bass will keep an increasing proportion of client profits… Continue reading The Perks Of Being A Hedge Fund Manager
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Perception Versus Reality A transcript of the May 19, 2016 conference call. Handout Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/051916.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Webcast (download if flash video does not work below) [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/051916.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”true” splashimage=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/themes/twentyten/images/splash.jpg” /] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=298″]
<Click on graphic for larger image> Factset – Earnings Insight for May 20, 2016 Earnings Scorecard: With 95% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting earn ings to date for Q1 2016, 71% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 53% h ave reported sales above the mean estimate. Earnings Growth: For Q1 2016,… Continue reading An Earnings Update
The Wall Street Journal – Fed Study to Fed: Stop Talking So Much Federal Reserve policy might be more effective if officials picked their rhetorical battles more carefully. A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, published Wednesday, warns that officials’ fire hose of public commentary may be running headlong into a public… Continue reading The Fed’s Communication Breakdown
The Washington Times – Donald Trump takes 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton in new national poll Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to a new poll. The Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday shows Mr. Trump with 46… Continue reading Trump Pulls Closer to Clinton