Barron’s – Sandra Ward: Bianco on Brexit and Rates After talking to Jim Bianco, we should be worried by what we’re not worried about. Bianco, the longtime observer of all things macroeconomic and the founder of Chicago-based Bianco Research, an affiliate of Arbor Research, is on high alert for “giant asymmetric risk.” Just back from… Continue reading Brexit
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Global Recession Not Likely A model pulling together economic data changes, namely unemployment and manufacturing, and market returns across the 35 OECD members are used to predict global recessions. Data through April 2016 shows a modest 36% probability of slow-down. Our… Continue reading The Odds Of A Global Slowdown
Bloomberg Business – Goldman Flags $1 Trillion Reason for Fed to Go Slow on Rates Significant distress’ seen with central bank tightening Lurking in the bond market is a $1 trillion reason for the Federal Reserve to go slow on interest-rate increases. That’s how much bondholders stand to lose if Treasury yields rise unexpectedly by… Continue reading Duration On The Rise
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – College Loan Glut Worries Policy Makers Massive investment in improving skills turns sour, echoes of housing crisis The U.S. government over the last 15 years made a trillion-dollar investment to improve the nation’s workforce, productivity and economy. A big portion of that investment has… Continue reading Student Loans
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Why Aren’t Low Rates Working? Blame Dividends Since the Federal Reserve took rates to near zero, companies have boosted buybacks 194% One of the great mysteries of the recovery is why low interest rates have done so little to lift business investment.… Continue reading Low Rates Encourage Stock Buybacks & Dividend Payments
<Click on graphic for larger image> Brookings – David Wessel: Do Fed officials talk too much about plans for interest rate moves? Federal Reserve policy makers have been working hard to persuade Wall Street observers and financial markets that, contrary to market expectations a few weeks ago, the Fed may boost short-term interest rates in June or July.… Continue reading Open Mouth Policy
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Lisa Abramowicz: The Fed Is as Clueless as You Are … And the probability of that June rate increase fell to just 4 percent from 22 percent the day before, according to futures contracts tracked by Bloomberg. Even the possibility of a July increase fell to… Continue reading The Fed Is Finding Its Way In The Dark
The New York Times – Justin Wolfers: If the Economy Is Sinking, Policy Makers Are Far From Prepared If the economy falters, perhaps the Federal Reserve will return to a policy of quantitative easing. But this would require a major shift in thinking, as the Fed now seems impatient to return to more normal interest… Continue reading What Would The Fed Do If The Economy Turns South?
The Wall Street Journal – East Coast Port Volumes Slump Ports in New York and Georgia reported a decline in April imports as retailers sitting on high inventories cut back. Cargo volumes at the East Coast’s two largest ports fell in April compared with a year earlier, as retailers continue to contend with high inventories… Continue reading Cargo Volumes Falling
The Financial Times – Goldman Sachs attracts 250,000 student job applications Number of applications from students and graduates globally rose by more than 40% since 2012 Goldman Sachs attracted more than a quarter of a million applications from students and graduates for jobs this summer, suggesting fears of a ‘brain drain’ in the sector may… Continue reading Summer Interns
<Click on cartoon for larger image>
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Added Only 38,000 Jobs in May Fewest jobs created since September 2010, dimming prospects for Fed interest-rate increase this month U.S. companies slowed their hiring drastically in May and unemployment fell as people dropped out of the labor force, a bleak picture for Federal Reserve officials as they prepare… Continue reading Employment In Pictures