<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Jim Chanos’s Fear of Cars If there’s one thing the recent news flow has shown, it’s that there are lots and lots and lots of things to be scared about, in financial markets and beyond. Famous short-seller Jim Chanos suggests there’s something people should add to the… Continue reading Worry About Auto Loans
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Oil supply: Rigonomics Is $50 a barrel enough to revive global oil production? IN THE wilds of western Texas, a flicker of life has returned to the fracking, or hydraulic-fracturing, industry. In the past four weeks nine idled oil rigs have been put back to work… Continue reading Is $50 Oil Enough To Save The Industry?
Bloomberg.com – The World Economy Looks a Bit Like It’s the 1930s Now, like then, a financial crisis has left deep scars Enda Curran To understand today’s global economy, look back 80 years. Just like in the 1930s, growth is being constrained by companies unwilling to spend, falling inflation expectations and governments backing away from… Continue reading Scary Talk About Another Depression
The Economist – International data flows: Priceless Trade in data seems very important, but there are no good, er, data on it ALTHOUGH trade in goods and services is sluggish, international flows of data are exploding. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank within a consultancy, data zipped across borders at a rate of… Continue reading How Useful Is Trade Data?
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<Click on chart for larger image> Comment Who is the outlier dot in the 2017 and 2018 projections highlighted above? Many are guessing this is either Chicago Federal Reserve President Charlie Evans or Governor Lael Brainard. A closer look reveals 17 projections for 2016, 2017 and 2018, but the long-term dots only show 16 projections.… Continue reading The FOMC Meeting
Comment After each FOMC meeting, we highlight a St. Louis Fed study on the rising complexity of the FOMC statement. As the charts below show, both the word count and the Flesch-Kincaid level have come down from their peaks of the past couple years (the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level measures the number of years of school… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The chart above shows the odds of a hike at the July, September and December meetings are all below 50%. In fact, no hike is priced in until next Summer (around August 2017). <Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Fed Forecasts See Lower… Continue reading Timing The Fed Hike
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Will the U.K. Vote Against Europe? Markets Vote No A week before Britain votes on whether to leave the European Union, polls show that the public’s preference is too close to call. Financial markets provide a different view: a persistent expectation that the U.K. will remain. When… Continue reading Your Daily Installment In Why The Polls Are Wrong And Brexit Will Not Win
Bloomberg.com – U.S. Treasury Clears Bond Sale Calendar on Day of Brexit Vote 30-year TIPS sale moved forward to June 22 from June 23 Shift may protect from Brexit-driven volatility: Barclays The U.S. Treasury cleared any bond sales from the day of the U.K.’s referendum on whether to remain in the European Union on June… Continue reading The Treasury Is Changing Its Auction Schedule Ahead Of Brexit
The Wall Street Journal – Liquidity Measures Alone Didn’t Stymie Treasury Market, FDIC Chairman Says Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg said Wednesday that postcrisis regulatory changes alone were not to blame for reduced liquidity in the Treasury market. “Recent research does not seem to support the proposition that post-crisis market liquidity for bonds… Continue reading Bond Market Liquidity
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