CNBC – Here’s what a Trump win would really mean for the stock market Donald Trump has signaled that big banks could be a short bet if he wins office, but his presidency could help plenty of other companies — like Pfizer, Monsanto, TransCanada and Lockheed, and asset classes like gold. The Republican platform clarified… Continue reading Is Trump Affecting The Markets?
<Click on graphic of larger image> <Click on chart of larger image> Bloomberg.com – Fracklog in the Biggest U.S. Oil Field May All But Disappear Drillers to tap most wells in 2 major basins by end of 2017 Sidelining wells helped producers manage costs as prices sank The number of dormant crude and natural gas… Continue reading Crude Oil Production
Bloomberg Business – Risk of Losing Renzi May Sway Merkel to Relent on Italian Banks Italian premier aiming to shield small investors from losses German Chancellor Angela Merkel may be willing to help shield Prime Minister Matteo Renzi from political damage if he bails out Italian banks. With the European Union buffeted by Brexit, a… Continue reading The Italian Bank Problem
CNBC – The Brexit recession no longer looks so certain Though revised lower from the last projections in April, the U.K. is expected to grow 1.7 percent in 2016 and 1.3 percent in 2017, which are respective downward revisions of 0.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points. Global growth was knocked down 0.1 percentage points… Continue reading Differing Views On Brexit
Bloomberg.com –How Sub-Zero Government Bonds Turned the Hunt For Yield Upside Down Negative yields haven’t actually benefited European credit markets for the past 2.5 years, argues Credit Suisse. The erosion of yields on government debt is generally thought to push investors into riskier assets as they seek out higher returns. That’s true, argue Credit Suisse AG… Continue reading Negative Yields
The New York Times – James B. Stewart: Pointing a Finger at the Fed in the Lehman Disaster As the last eight years have unfolded, the enormous economic and political consequences of the Lehman Brothers failure have emerged with stark clarity, never more evident than in this week’s Republican convention. The widespread anger, frustration and… Continue reading The Legacy Of Lehman
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Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Central banks responded to the Brexit vote with stimulus in the hopes of avoiding a serious crisis. In the process, they set… Continue reading Have Central Banks Created The Perfect Scenario For Risk Markets?
<Click on graphic for larger image> MarketWatch – Why Italy’s bank crisis could be ‘ticking time bomb’ It wouldn’t be summer without Europe threatening to upend global financial markets. The looming threat this year comes from Italy and its long-suffering banking sector. “As we trend into the second half of the year, the situation in… Continue reading More On Italy’s Debt Time Bomb
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Peter Forbes: Fed Likely to Resume Tough Talk Strong recent data has pushed Citi’s Economic Data Change Index for the US back above zero for the first time since the Fed raised rates in December 2015 (top left panel below). This adds the US economy to our… Continue reading Timing The Fed Hike
Bloomberg.com – Negative Yields Infecting Credit Markets as Investors Capitulate It’s getting harder for corporate debt investors to avoid the volume of negative yielding bonds that are now pouring into credit markets. Investors are holding about 465 billion euros ($512 billion) of investment-grade company bonds with yields below zero, an eleven-fold increase on the start of the… Continue reading Negative Yields
CNBC – Corporate debt seen ballooning to $75 trillion: S&P Corporate debt is projected to swell over the next several years, thanks to cheap money from global central banks, according to a report Wednesday that warns of a potential crisis from all that new, borrowed cash floating around. By 2020, business debt likely will climb… Continue reading Corporate Debt Issuance