<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Ben Breithotlz: Global Recession Fears Cooling A model pulling together economic data changes, namely unemployment and manufacturing, and market returns across many of the 35 OECD members are used to predict global recessions. Data through June 2016 shows a lowly 12% probability of slow-down. Our fears for… Continue reading Global Recession Indicator
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: An Election Update Poll Update A Brexit Distortion In The Surprise Indices A Brexit Distortion In The Surprise Indices – 2 Earnings And Revenue Beat Rates Earnings Expectations Revenue Expectations S&P 500 Forward PE Ratio Timing The Next Rate Hike Is Oil Becoming A Concern Again?… Continue reading Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Federal Reserve interest rate meeting: what to watch Central bank may hold open possibility of second rate rise later this year When Federal Reserve policymakers last gathered in June, the picture that confronted them was a murky one. Britain was just a few days away… Continue reading The FOMC Decision Is Today
CNBC Fed Survey, July 26, 2016 by CNBC on Scribd CNBC – Wall Street now substantially less certain of a Clinton victory Wall Street is now substantially less certain of a Hillary Clinton victory than it was just a month ago. In the wake of the Republican National Convention and continued damage to Clinton’s… Continue reading The Fed Survey
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Why a Fed repeat of 2015 will not help the dollar The market may expect a December rate rise, but the US currency is unlikely to benefit For all the drama and turmoil that has defined 2016, an air of predictability is starting to settle… Continue reading Why The Fed Isn’t Helping The Dollar
Bloomberg Business – Timothy Duy: Fed Doves Won’t Be Able to Rule the Roost Forever Strengthening U.S. economic data means policymakers supporting easy monetary policy will increasingly be on the defensive against their hawkish competitors. To pull the doves to the rate hike side of the equation requires further evidence that labor markets remain firm,… Continue reading Fed Doves vs Hawks
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Why the Bond-Yield Curve Isn’t Likely Signaling Recession Ahead Unlike past recessions, this yield-curve compression is largely caused by external factors Record-low yields on U.S. treasuries have for decades signaled weakness in the U.S. economy and foreshadowed recession. Not this time. Some economists are pointing to the… Continue reading The Yield Curve And The Possibility Of A Recession
<Click on graphic for larger image> Reuters – Global QE running at record $180 bln per month, and rising Eight years after the global financial crisis and years after the U.S. and British central banks stopped their quantitative easing bond-buying programmes, the amount of QE stimulus being pumped into the world financial system has never… Continue reading Liquidity In The Markets
Manhattan Institute – The Public Pension Problem: It’s Much Worse Than It Appears When financial markets slumped in 2008, the assets in government-worker pension funds plunged and public sector retirement debt soared. Although pension officials rushed to assure the public that their funds would recover as soon as stocks rebounded, the long bull market that… Continue reading Public Pension Funds Continue To Disappoint
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg View – Tyler Cowen: Maybe Negative Yields Are a Sign of Prosperity Just when it seemed that negative yields could not spread any further, they did. Corporate bonds paying negative interest rates now account for about $512 billion of market value, bringing the world close to a total… Continue reading Corporate Bond Negative Yields
The Economist – Of populism and profits Investors may be too sanguine IF YOU look at the headlines, geopolitical risk is at record highs, with populism and strife in Europe, a coup attempt in Turkey, a tense election in America, the threat of terrorism, and tensions in the South China Sea. Peer at a stock-price… Continue reading Investors Continue To Shrug Off Geopolitical Risk