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August 2, 2016
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Bank of England Set To Cut Rates
August 1, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Bank of England prepares to cut rates into uncharted territory The Bank of England looks ready to cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 on Thursday, seeking to stop Britain’s vote to leave the European Union from kicking the country into recession. It may even go… Continue reading Bank of England Set To Cut Rates
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An Earnings Update
August 1, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Fact Set – S&P Now Reporting Revenue Growth for Q2 The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 increased to 0.1% during the week of July 25, which is above the year-over-year decline of… Continue reading An Earnings Update
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Another Call For Increasing The QE Dosage To Make It Work
August 1, 2016
The Financial Times – Free Lunch: Increase the dosage Monetary policy works and monetary policymakers know it. Which raises the question why do they not do more? That goes for all the main central banks. As Brad DeLong puts it in the US case: “If you had told the Federal Reserve at the start of… Continue reading Another Call For Increasing The QE Dosage To Make It Work
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All This QE Must Be Paid For Somehow
August 1, 2016
The Financial Times – QE-forever cycle will have an unhappy ending Policymakers have chosen to ignore the central issue of debt as they try to resuscitate activity. Since 2008, total public and private debt in major economies has increased by over $60tn to more than $200tn, about 300 per cent of global gross domestic product… Continue reading All This QE Must Be Paid For Somehow
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Comparing GDP Gains To Past Expansions
August 1, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Seven Years Later, Recovery Remains the Weakest of the Post-World War II Era Even seven years after the recession ended, the current stretch of economic gains has yielded less growth than much shorter business cycles. In terms of average annual growth, the pace of this expansion has… Continue reading Comparing GDP Gains To Past Expansions
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Global Growth Estimates Accelerate
August 1, 2016
The Financial Times – Gavyn Davies: Has the global economy (finally) achieved escape velocity? The latest Fulcrum nowcasts for global economic activity have identified a broad pick-up in growth in many major regions, both in the advanced economies and the emerging markets. The latest estimate shows global activity expanding at an annualised rate of 4.1… Continue reading Global Growth Estimates Accelerate
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Timing The Fed Hike
August 1, 2016
Barron’s – The Fed Cries Wolf Markets largely ignored a more-upbeat message in last week’s Fed policy statement. Is the central bank’s influence on the wane? The Federal Reserve is the chief arbiter of where U.S. interest rates are heading. But lately, its influence has waned. Markets largely ignored a more-upbeat message in last week’s Fed… Continue reading Timing The Fed Hike
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More On The 50-Year Bond
August 1, 2016
The Wall Street Journal – Editorial: Uncle Sam Needs a Refi Treasury should lock in more federal debt at today’s low rates The government should do everything it can to insulate taxpayers from this inevitable rate rise. Treasury has surveyed institutional investors and found at least some interest in a potential 50-year debt offering. But… Continue reading More On The 50-Year Bond
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The Anti-Globalization Movement
August 1, 2016
The New York Times – N. Gregory Mankiw: Why Voters Don’t Buy It When Economists Say Global Trade Is Good One defining characteristic of recent political debate — in the United States and abroad — is anxiety about foreigners. You see it in Donald Trump’s railing against immigrants and trade agreements. It may well be… Continue reading The Anti-Globalization Movement
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Stock Returns In Election Years
August 1, 2016
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Investors Like Election Years, No Matter Who Wins Whether you favor the Democrat or the Republican, you have to like the stock market when the U.S. elects its president. For investors seeking a quick buck, a bet on the Republican pays… Continue reading Stock Returns In Election Years
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Gundlach’s Grim View
August 1, 2016
Reuters – ‘Sell everything,’ DoubleLine’s Gundlach says Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Friday that many asset classes look frothy and his firm continues to hold gold, a traditional safe-haven, along with gold miner stocks. Noting the recent run-up in the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index while economic growth remains weak… Continue reading Gundlach’s Grim View