<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Peter Forbes: Supply Driven Swings in Crude Oil Our approach for decomposing crude oil price changes dates back to January of 2015. We revisited the model in March, noting the supply concerns were the dominant component in crude’s rally from the Feb 11 low. By early June,… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply/Demand
<Click on chart for larger image> Barrons – Gold ETFs Won’t Lose Their Luster This Year WHAT REALLY DRIVES the price of gold? “ETFs have become an integral part of the gold market, but it’s just one of four or five price drivers,” says Milling-Stanley, who now works for State Street Global Advisors, GLD’s marketing… Continue reading Does The Tail Wag The Dog In Gold ETFs Or Vice Versa?
<Click on chart for larger image> Blackrock – The main ingredient required for further stock gains Global stocks are up year-to-date, having shaken off worries about the strength of the global economy in the wake of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote. Can they move higher into year-end? This week’s chart helps explain why further gains… Continue reading What Has Driven Stock Returns This Year? (Other Than Central Banks)
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Maybe It’s Worth Underestimating Analysts I wrote a column yesterday about how our highly-valued U.S. stock market, and the importance of earnings estimates in generating price-to-earnings ratios — which are one of the most pivotal valuation gauges for investors. And a P/E ratio, after all, is only… Continue reading A Detailed Look At Earnings Estimates
Janus Capital – Bill Gross: Masters and Johnson Q&A 1. When does our credit-based financial system sputter/break down? When investable assets pose too much risk for too little return. Not immediately, but at the margin, low/negative yielding credit is exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal gold or cash in a mattress. When it does, the… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Gold May Not Be the Safe Haven Investors Think It Is Investors talk of gold as the ultimate asset for stashing wealth in uncertain times. But two Harvard researchers say they’ve got it wrong. Professor Robert Barro and PhD student Sanjay Misra argue in new research that gold is not the hedge… Continue reading Gold Is Not An Economic Hedge
The Financial Times – Bank of England cuts rates to 0.25% and slashes growth forecasts The Bank of England has slashed its UK growth forecasts and launched a huge new stimulus package as it attempts to mitigate the damage it judges the Brexit vote will inflict on the UK economy. Interest rates have been cut… Continue reading The BoE Fires Up Its QE Machine Again
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – A $500 Billion Stampede in Money Markets Even Before New Rules Hit The last big post-Lehman regulatory change is reverberating across the financial system, potentially squeezing short-term lending for businesses and local governments. The rules haven’t taken effect yet but are already upending the… Continue reading More On The New Money Market Rules
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – One More Reason for Investors to Worry About ‘Earnings Before Bad Stuff’ Regulators and investors are increasingly wary when companies overemphasize their own customized earnings metrics. New research shows they may have a point. Companies that report significantly stronger earnings by using tailored figures like… Continue reading Beware Companies Who Game Earnings
The Wall Street Journal – Goldman to Settle Federal Reserve Charges Over Leak of Central-Bank Secrets Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has agreed to pay $36.3 million to settle allegations by the Federal Reserve that it obtained and used confidential regulatory materials from the central bank two years ago. The penalty comes after the bank already… Continue reading Goldman Gets A Slap On The Wrist
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Another Great Quarter Second-quarter earnings may have been soggy, but analysts thought plenty of companies’ results were “great” Analysts are making quarters great again. With operating earnings for companies in the S&P 500 tracking a 2.4% decline from a year earlier, investors may be… Continue reading “Great Quarter Guys!”
Bloomberg.com – JPMorgan to Use Computerized Trader’s Technology for Bonds JPMorgan Chase & Co. will use a computerized trading firm’s technology to access and trade in the U.S. Treasury market, marking a further step in the transformation of markets by electronic specialists. The New York bank is partnering with Virtu Financial Inc., one of the… Continue reading The Robots Are Taking Over