<Click on chart for larger image> Blackrock – A most unusual election season This U.S. presidential election season is unusual, with unpopular candidates, vast policy differences and equity market volatility at historically low levels. We see volatility moving higher as the Nov. 8 election approaches. Equity markets tend to react more to macroeconomic factors and… Continue reading Volatility In Election Years
Real Time Economics – In Labor vs. Capital, Labor Is Now Winning A tighter labor market will continue to favor workers in wage negotiations .. After 2007 the labor share does drop dramatically, mostly because the recession devastated employment and wages. As a result, the adjusted labor share hit bottom in 2014 at around 64%… Continue reading The Labor Market
<Click on graphic for larger image> Business Insider – The US is a big outlier when it comes to income inequality It’s no secret that the US has an inequality problem. But it is striking to see it compared to other developed economies. In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs’ Sumana Manohar and Hugo… Continue reading Income Inequality
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – New Rules and Fresh Headaches for Short-Term Borrowers Move by SEC to make money-market funds safer is putting stress on a crucial funding source for cities, counties and foreign banks The common thread: a move by the Securities and Exchange Commission to make money-market funds safer… Continue reading More On Money Market Funds’ New Regulations
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Are Negative Rates Backfiring? Here’s Some Early Evidence Economists worry that people and businesses are saving more, instead of spending Interest payments on savings accounts in the eurozone are at the lowest levels since 2000, according to ECB data. In the early 1990s, it… Continue reading Unintended Consequences To Negative Rates
Janney.com – Key issues that emerged at a financial industry retreat included knock-on Brexit effects, Chinagrowth, US high yield, and EM freedoms. • Camp Kotok is an annual economist, strategist, and portfolio manager retreat in Maine that affords the opportunity to understand the major economic and market issues of the day from a more distant… Continue reading Camp Kotok Review
Barron’s – Bank of England Stimulus Moves Could Fall Short Britain seems headed for a recession later this year, notwithstanding a sharp reduction in interest rates. Why sterling could fall further THE BREADTH OF THE STIMULUS package surprised many. “It’s the full gamut,” says Alan Wilde, head of global fixed income at Baring Asset Management.… Continue reading The BoE
<Click on graphic for larger image> Contra Corner – The Stock Market Is Disappearing In One Giant LBO——The Wilshire 5000 is Now Down To 3607 Companies Numbers and false advertising have a long history: 4.9% unemployment, 2.5% GDP growth, 72 virgins. Now we can add the Wilshire 5000 to the list. What started with good intentions… Continue reading The Wilshire 5000 Is A Misnomer
<Click on chart for larger image> CNBC – Ron Insana: That stellar jobs report just gave the Fed clearance for takeoff to start raising rates Goldilocks has re-entered the building! The data in the July employment report were not only uniformly strong in their internal components, but the prior month’s jobs data were revised upward,… Continue reading The Odds Of A Fed Hike
Fact Set – Earnings Insight For the first quarter of 2016, the actual, year-over-year earnings decline reported by the S&P 500 was -6.7%. For the second quarter of 2016, the blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report), year-over-year earnings decline for the S&P 500 stands… Continue reading An Earnings Update
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Quantitative Easing: Central Banks’ Old Faithful Even in nations like the U.S. and U.K. where active quantitative easing had stopped, its ghost has lingered. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the BOE have been reinvesting the proceeds of maturing securities to prevent their balance… Continue reading Central Bank Balance Sheets: Stock vs. Flow