MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Dow 68000 Here We Come? Strategists have high hopes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But, by a popular 1990s metric, they are not nearly high enough. At 18500, the Dow is closing in on a new record. In fact, Wall Street’s year-ahead consensus for the index just crossed the 20000… Continue reading More On The Broken Fed Model
Yesterday Jim was on CNBC talking about central bank stimulus. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here.
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Lisa Abramowicz: Climb Doesn’t Last Forever It has been a good few months for Wall Street debt traders. Credit-trading profits surged in the three months ended June 30. And based on recent market activity, fixed-income revenues are still coming in strong. Consider that U.S. investment-grade and high-yield… Continue reading It’s A Good Time To Be A Credit Trader
Bloomberg.com – What’s Really Wrong With the Unemployment Rate When the U.S. government finally started measuring unemployment on a monthly basis in 1940 it was with a similar understanding that you didn’t count as unemployed unless you really wanted to work. The employment survey was initially conducted by the New Deal-era Works Progress Administration, then… Continue reading The Ever-Evolving Unemployment Measurement
CNBC – Ben Bernanke: The Fed’s not going to be raising rates for a while Chastened over forecasting errors, Fed officials will be less likely to tip their hands on how they see the future. Ben Bernanke thinks his former colleagues at the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates anytime soon. One… Continue reading Bernanke On Fedspeak
Bloomberg.com – The Bank of England Just Learned a Lot About Bond Market Liquidity You can’t always get what you want. On Tuesday, the Bank of England didn’t manage to buy all the gilts it wanted at a reverse auction — the first such shortfall since it began its bond-buying program back in 2009. The ‘uncovered auction’ happened as investors… Continue reading BoE QE: Nothing To See Here, Move Along
Reuters – Deutsche Bank had biggest potential capital gap in ZEW study Deutsche Bank had the highest potential capital shortfall, 19 billion euros ($21 billion), in a study of 51 European banks using U.S. Federal Reserve stress test methods, German economic research institute ZEW said. “European banks lack sufficient capital to offset the losses expected… Continue reading Dire Warnings For Deutsche Bank
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Here’s One Reason for Optimism on Oil Prices Hedge funds are betting that swelling inventories will help push the price of oil lower, but this glut still looks milder than past bearish cycles in crude…a report by Ned Davis Research Group argues these investors… Continue reading A Historic Look At Crude Oil Inventories
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – The Emerging-Market Debt Bomb Ticks For Oil There is massive stress throughout the global oil-supply chain, from the likes of relatively small E&P companies such as California Resources to supermajors borrowing to fund massive dividend payments. And the oilfield-services sector faces a $110 billion debt wall in the… Continue reading Emerging Market Oil Debt
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Barclays sees fewer funds in 2016 amid poor returns The rate of hedge fund liquidations will exceed the rate of launches this year for the first time since 2009, according to Barclays, as managers struggle with underperformance and increasing challenges in starting up funds. The rate of… Continue reading Hedge Funds Come And Go
Bloomberg.com – U.S. Drillers Need $60 Oil to Stage Real Comeback, IEA Say While shale drilling in the U.S. is on the rise again, prices need to climb nearer to $60 a barrel for U.S. producers to have a “substantial” boost in activity, the International Energy Agency said. Producers remain “cautious on outlook,” and further… Continue reading Oil’s Catch 22
MarketWatch – Is the bear market in bonds finally here? For years, talking heads, analysts, and market prognosticators have been calling for higher rates. I can’t begin to tell you how many conferences I’ve been to where at least one session was dedicated to “what to do when rates rise.” Mind you, I’ve been going… Continue reading Another Call For Higher Rates: This Time Is Different