Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Bearish On Bonds Bearish On Bonds – 2 Fed Officials Continue To Plead For The Green Light From Markets When Will The Fed Hike Next? Earnings Expectations Revenue Expectations Uncertainty Remains Elevated China “Clamps Down” China “Clamps Down” Foreigners Continue To Sell U.S. Treasuries New Money… Continue reading Charts of the Week
<Click on table for larger image> MarketWatch.com – Is the bear market in bonds finally here? No one has been more wrong about the future than bond bears. That may be about to change. For years, talking heads, analysts, and market prognosticators have been calling for higher rates. I can’t begin to tell you how many conferences… Continue reading Bearish On Bonds
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Dollar’s Drop Signals Doubts Over Fed Rate Rise Investors appear to believe that soft global economic growth will limit Federal Reserve’s capacity to tighten monetary policy Federal Reserve officials are trying to signal that another rate increase is likely while at the same time questioning… Continue reading The Fed Continues To Beg The Market For Permission To Hike Rates, Market Continues To Say No
Bloomberg View – What to Expect From the Fed’s Minutes With the U.S. economy still running below potential and the rest of the world presenting ample challenges to growth, this week’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July policy-making meeting should garner a lot of interest among economists and market participants. I see five areas… Continue reading What To Watch For In The FOMC Minutes
<Click on chart for larger image> The Reformed Banker – The Truth about Treasurys … Just out, for the 3rd straight month in June there was large net foreign selling of US Treasury notes and bonds. In June, foreigners sold $33b worth of notes and bonds after selling $18.3b in May and $75B in April. This… Continue reading Foreigners Continue To Sell U.S. Bonds
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco – John C. Williams: Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World Central banks and governments around the world must be able to adapt policy to changing economic circumstances. The time has come to critically reassess prevailing policy frameworks and consider adjustments to handle new challenges, specifically those related to a… Continue reading More Fedspeak
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg View – Market Signals Just Aren’t What They Used to Be Financial markets are no longer just a barometer. Now they can cause storms. We can see two reasons that this happened: Active investors switched to autopilot, and economic regulators became followers rather than leaders. We can also see… Continue reading How Passive Investing Has Changed Market Signals
Bloomberg Business – After Losing $1 Trillion, Central Banks Build Reserves Again Reserves climbed $73 billion to $11 trillion in three months Central banks in developing economies are taking advantage of the biggest rally in their currencies since 2010. Led by Turkey and Thailand, they’re using stronger exchange rates to build up foreign reserves for the… Continue reading Reserves Climb At Central Banks
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Hedge-Fund Firms Brevan Howard, Tudor Battle Losses Brevan Howard fund suffers first-half outflow of more than $3 billion; Tudor’s head count falls by 15% A growing exodus from hedge funds extended to two of the biggest names in the industry Tuesday, Tudor Investment Corp. and… Continue reading Hedge Fund Performance
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Sterling corporate bond issuance surges after BoE easing Sterling corporate bond issuance has surged following the Bank of England’s stimulus package, which seems to have helped breathe life into a market that was becoming increasingly moribund. The two weeks since the Bank of England unveiled its easing… Continue reading Sterling Corporate Bond Issuance Up After BoE Easing
BBC News – Bank of England bond buying plan back on track The Bank of England has successfully bought £1.17bn worth of government bonds as part of its £60bn buy-back programme to stimulate the economy. Last week, the Bank failed to find enough sellers when it offered to buy the bonds, known as gilts. But it found… Continue reading BoE Successfully Buys Long-Dated Gilts
<Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – Asset Class Valuations: The Perceived Price of Certainty In an uncertain world, it makes sense certainty should be richly priced. But there also seems to be an inexplicably large valuation gap between the mild uncertainty introduced by IG credit and the perceived certainty of U.S. Treasuries. Historical cumulative… Continue reading PE Ratios Across Asset Classes