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Voting For Brexit Was The Easy Part. The Details Of Leaving Are More Difficult

September 1, 2016

The New York Times – As Deadlines Bear Down, Britain’s ‘Brexit’ Effort Is a Muddle Since Britain’s vote in June to quit the European Union, its government has promised repeatedly to make a success of withdrawal, known as Brexit. More than two months later, however, it still cannot say how. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa… Continue reading Voting For Brexit Was The Easy Part. The Details Of Leaving Are More Difficult

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More On Negative Rates

September 1, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – The 5,000-Year Government Debt Bubble Politicians playing by their own rules is an old story. But it should count as news that politicians have lately been rewriting a rule in place since 3,000 B.C. This rule of history is that savers deserve to be… Continue reading More On Negative Rates

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Newsclips

The Latest Fed Bashing

September 1, 2016

Janus – Bill Gross: How I Found My Golf Game but Lost My Wife to a Titleist Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has been at it a long time, as have her predecessors and contemporaries in other central banks. All have mastered the art of market manipulation and no — that’s not an unkind accusation —… Continue reading The Latest Fed Bashing

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Inflation Expectations

September 1, 2016

MarketWatch – Caroline Baum: The Fed’s baffling fascination with unreliable information The idea of relying on expectations as a means to an end always seemed more viable in theory than in practice. So I was glad to find some support for my reservations from the economics community: specifically, a blog post by William Dupor, an… Continue reading Inflation Expectations

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Newsclips

Arguing Against A Housing Bubble

September 1, 2016

CNBC – Ron Insana: Stop it! There is no national housing bubble Real market bubbles are relatively rare, but share very common features that this run up in housing prices most obviously lacks. Bubbles have been studied by a host of academic economists and students of financial history, from Ben Bernanke to John Kenneth Galbraith… Continue reading Arguing Against A Housing Bubble

Newsclips

The Anatomy Of A Healthy Stock Rally

September 1, 2016

<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Consumers Are Driving Up the S&P 500. Why That’s Nothing to Worry About The S&P 500 in August achieved an unusual feat: The index reached highs, while only one of its 10 sectors hit a record, as the dynamics behind the rally changed. The… Continue reading The Anatomy Of A Healthy Stock Rally

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Newsclips

Stock Valuations

September 1, 2016

The Financial Times – ‘Valuation’ investors have got it all wrong on US stocks Warnings about irrational stock valuations fail the test of practical advice because they inherently require an unspoken reliance on market timing. Cape has been indicating that US stocks have been overvalued for large stretches of their post-financial crisis bull run, and… Continue reading Stock Valuations

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Cartoons

September 1, 2016

<Click on cartoon for larger image>

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Charts of the Week

Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week

August 31, 2016

Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/090116.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: The Market’s Track Record No Hike This Year Forward Curve And Fed Do Not Agree How The Fed Really Works Fischer Speaks The Fed’s Credibility Everyone Is Getting Easier Easiest Post-Crisis Period Ever? Did Central Banks Panic After Brexit? Was… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week

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Fed Hike Update

August 31, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> Comment We first highlighted this chart yesterday: The green bars above show the market’s track record in predicting FOMC hikes/cuts over the last 86 meetings since Bernanke and Yellen were in charge. Note that within 10 days of a meeting, the market has correctly predicted the outcome of all… Continue reading Fed Hike Update

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Newsclips

Election Year Seasonality

August 31, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Business Insider – We’re about to enter ‘the worst month of the year for stocks’ Get ready: September could get ugly. The month is the only one of the year in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been lower on average over the past… Continue reading Election Year Seasonality

Newsclips

Stan Fisher On Negative Rates

August 31, 2016

Bloomberg.com – Fed’s Fischer Says Negative Rates Seem to Work in Today’s World Equity prices ‘quite decent’ where policy has been in use Reiterates that Fed rate increases will depend on data “We’re in a world where they seem to work,” Fischer said, noting that while negative rates are “difficult to deal with” for savers, they… Continue reading Stan Fisher On Negative Rates