<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Think You Know the Natural Rate of Interest? Think Again The new debate in central banking is over whether long-run interest rates are lower than in the past, thanks to permanently lower growth. Investors seem to share the view of many policy makers that they… Continue reading The Natural Rate Of Inflation
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> Barron’s – Barron’s Survey: Strategists Say Beware the Bear Stocks could tread water for the rest of the year—or even fall. Wall Street’s top strategists also predict only modest gains in 2017. For the first time in years, there’s dissension in the ranks of… Continue reading Wall Street Strategists
The New Yorker – How Should We Read Investor Letters? Considering the correspondence between C.E.O.s and shareholders as a literary genre. The corporate letter is a useful form of storytelling and of self-definition, but modern leaders of companies have other tools at their disposal. The avowed aim of Elon Musk’s company, Space X, is “to revolutionize… Continue reading Investor Letters
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Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled What To Expect From The FOMC In The Wake Of Jackson Hole. The mp3 replay, webcast and handout are below. [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/090116.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] [hana-flv-player video=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/090116.flv” width=”600″ height=”495″ description=”” player=”3″ autoload=”false” autoplay=”false” loop=”false” autorewind=”false” skin=”functional” /] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=323″]
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Payroll Growth Slowed in August; Jobless Rate Held Steady Growth of 151,000 jobs falls short of surveyed economists’ expectations Hiring cooled in August but remained consistent with steady U.S. job growth capable of holding down unemployment and producing decent wage gains. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 last month,… Continue reading Employment In Pictures
The Wall Street Journal – Jobs Pullback Cuts Odds of September Rate Hike Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 last month U.S. hiring cooled slightly in August, with U.S. employers adding 151,000 jobs. The dollar moved lower and U.S. stock futures ticked higher as as investors cut the odds of a Federal Reserve… Continue reading No Hike In September
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Productivity Drop in Second Quarter Revised to 0.6% Rate The second quarter’s decline in U.S. worker productivity was a bit steeper than initially estimated, and marked the longest slide in labor productivity since the end of the 1970s, a worrisome omen for the… Continue reading Poor Productivity
The Financial Times – Gillian Tett: Echoes of 2008 as danger signs are ignored Absent from Jackson Hole was a full-blown discussion of issues concerning financial practitioners This is ominous. In the short term, those sky-high asset prices seem unlikely to produce a full-blown 2008-style crisis; there is less leverage in the western financial system… Continue reading Is The Fed Ignoring Market Signals Again?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Goldman: The Fed Might Have a New, Big Idea The natural rate of interest has been lower than previously thought. The r-star (r*) is the natural rate of interest that sometimes crops up in economics texts. It also might be the Federal Reserve’s newest, biggest idea, according to strategists at the… Continue reading The Fed’s New Great Idea … R-Star
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Stockmarket returns in America: The long arm of the Fed The central bank may exert a strange sway over stockmarket returns It is no surprise that meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), in which Fed governors and regional Fed presidents set interest-rate policy, can trigger rises… Continue reading Stocks And The Fed
The Wall Street Journal – ECB’s Nowotny: Don’t Blame Central Bankers for Low Rates The low interest rate environment has more to do with economic developments, rather than the autonomous actions of central banks, said European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny in a speech Thursday. He added that in this environment it was difficult… Continue reading Central Banks Circle The Wagons