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How Do U.S. Equity Returns Compare to Global Markets?
December 18, 2024
The United States is home to many of the world's largest companies. It is also home to the best-performing and most dominant stock market globally. Can it continue?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 18, 2024
Today's topics include the choice between forward guidance & data dependence, expecting a technical tweak to the Fed's repo rate, quantifying liquidity shocks, nobody has a crystal ball, the megacap rally, the Dow's losing streak, top strategies for 2025, and the PBOC tries to put a floor on rates
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Cartoons
December 18, 2024
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The Question Powell Needs to Answer
December 17, 2024
Long-term rates started rising right after the Fed started cutting the funds rate, similar to what happened when the Fed cut rates before 1981. Powell needs to explain why this is not a signal of a policy mistake. Otherwise, yields will continue to climb until the Fed ends the cutting campaign.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 17, 2024
Today's topics include Timiraos cements a cut followed by a pause, why is the Fed even cutting rates?, the Fed needs to continue cutting!, everyone is bullish on stocks!, the latest BofA survey, looking for signs of funding strain, yen approaching danger zone, and fiscally speaking
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Cartoons
December 17, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 16, 2024
Today's topics include the importance of forward guidance this week, bonds' bad week, the 10-year/3-month yield curve uninverts, dynamic pricing's effect on inflation, treasury policy & the basis trade, time for a santa rally in stocks?, volatility in 2025, and crypto regulation
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Cartoons
December 16, 2024
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
December 13, 2024
Today's topics include more on FOMC expectations next year, what to expect from stocks in 2025, bad breadth, breaking down wages & inflation by income, the deficit is only accelerating in 2025, the Mag Seven are bigger than all economies except the U.S. & China, trading volumes get a Trump bump, and Chinese yields continue to plummet.
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Cartoons
December 13, 2024
Charts of the Week
All in on Stocks
December 13, 2024
By almost any measure, traders have rarely been this exuberant about the stock market.