<Click on graphic for larger image> MarketWatch – Janet Yellen should take off her gloves and fight, top forecaster says An economy plagued by self-doubts can’t do much, says economist Brian Jones, who won his 14th Forecaster of the Month contest in August. He wonders how the Federal Reserve can expect businesses, consumers and investors… Continue reading Fighting The Fed
The Wall Street Journal – Rate-Rise Fears Trip Up Markets The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 400 points, and sinking bond prices pushed yields on government debt to their highest levels since early summer. The yield on Germany’s 10-year bund, which had been negative almost without exception since Britain voted to leave the European… Continue reading More On The Idea That QE Has Reached Its Conclusion
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – The Last Word on Fed Policy Goes to Brainard Heading into the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, all eyes are on Lael Brainard. The Fed governor is speaking in Chicago on Monday, making hers the last scheduled appearance before U.S. central bankers go into their traditional pre-meeting quiet… Continue reading All Eyes On Lael Brainard Today
<Click on chart for larger image> AQA – Ben Breitholtz: Attempting to Explain the Low Asset Class Return Conundrum Asset allocation for long-only investors proved its most difficult on record in 2015. The S&P 500’s paltry 1.38% returns provided the ‘best’ investment among equities, bonds, cash, and commodities. We attempt to provide reasons for such… Continue reading More On Low Returns Across All Asset Classes
CNBC Pro – Jim Bianco: Markets trapped in central bank bubble Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and CNBC’s Rick Santelli debated the potential repercussions from the ongoing money-printing bonanza from central banks around the world. “If you want to complain, you can’t complain when the stock market is at an all-time high and yields are this… Continue reading Central Bank Bubbles
The Wall Street Journal – Hillary Clinton’s Pneumonia Jolts the Presidential Race Announcement of diagnosis comes after the Democrat left a 9/11 memorial ceremony Hillary Clinton’s campaign said Sunday she has been diagnosed with pneumonia, hours after the Democratic presidential nominee abruptly left a 9/11 memorial ceremony in New York for what her aides initially described… Continue reading How Much Does Hillary’s Medical Incident Matter?
<Click on chart for larger image> AQA – Peter Forbes: Pound Strength Favored, UK Economy in Focus Citi’s Econ Data Change and Surprise Indices paint contrasting pictures of the UK and US economies. The UK has seen economic performance slip away from 1 year averages, reflected in the data change index falling away from zero.… Continue reading A Look At The UK
CNBC – Why big investors including BlackRock are buying negative-yielding debt With historically low yields limiting investors’ returns, money managers are in a tough situation: There are few investment opportunities in a world where bond yields are low and U.S. stocks are near all-time highs. In such an environment, “we do buy some negative rate… Continue reading Playing Hot Potato With Negative-Yielding Bonds
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Why So Few Economists Are Prepared to Say Recession Risks Are Fading By many key measures, the economy has looked fine in recent months. After gradually sliding for most of 2015, industrial production has bounced up. Consumer spending has done well. The economy added 151,000… Continue reading Economists’ Recession Expectations Remain Elevated
<Click on chart for larger image> FT Alphaville – The Fed’s slow march into collateral intermediation The Fed sure seems to be getting comfortable with the idea of acting as a centralised counterparty for collateral transactions. It’s unclear whether the market’s quite as enamored with the idea…bank reserves have lost their primacy as a tool… Continue reading The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility As A Clearing House
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Leverage Soars to New Heights as Corporate Bond Deluge Rolls On The safe part of the market is becoming the most dangerous Debt growth most pronounced in energy and healthcare But what has the analysts uneasy isn’t just the speed at which leverage is climbing, but that it’s… Continue reading Leverage Ramps Up
Bloomberg Business – Gundlach’s Bond-Market Inflection Point DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach indicated in a webcast on Thursday that financial markets are on the brink of turmoil, saying “this is a big, big moment.” He’s right. It is. The mood has shifted suddenly. Investors are losing faith in the efficacy of monetary stimulus, and it appears that perhaps central… Continue reading Gundlach Speaks