<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch – Household net worth climbs by over $1 trillion in second quarter Thanks to gains in both the stock market and home prices, household net worth rose by more than $1 trillion in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve said household net worth rose to $89.06 trillion in… Continue reading Household Net Worth Rises By Over $1 Trillion In Q2
Bloomberg View – Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed Is About to Make a Mistake Next week, officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a crucial meeting on whether to raise interest rates. Whatever they do, it will probably be a mistake. More than seven years after the recovery began in mid-2009, inflation remains below the central… Continue reading Confusing Fedspeak
The Washington Post – The state of macroeconomics is not good Yesterday’s post about the stale quality of international relations theory provoked some pushback from international relations scholars. It also probably generated some bemusement by economists. This is mostly because economists are close to insufferable when they opine about the other. Indeed, in “Economics Rules,” an otherwise… Continue reading Questioning Economists
DealB%k (NYT Blog) – ‘Trust Your Gut’ Might Actually Be Profitable Advice on Wall Street, Study Says In a study published on Monday in the journal Scientific Reports, a group of researchers suggest that high-frequency traders who were more sensitive to their own bodies routinely made more profitable trades, and had longer careers in a… Continue reading The Worst Investment Advice Ever?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Great again? THE median real household income grew by a whacking 5.2%, or $2,800, in 2015, according to figures released on September 13th. A purring labour market accounts for the bulk of the rise: that year average weekly earnings in the private-sector grew by 2.4%, while… Continue reading Breaking Down The Gains In Household Income
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment We have argued in the past that the potential of excess cash on the sidelines to help buoy the markets once invested was minimal: Liquid assets held on companies’ balance sheets is a nominal number, much like the nominal level of GDP, that rarely decreases. This series must… Continue reading Cash On The Sidelines
The Financial Times – We are still groping for truth about the financial crisis Eight years after Lehman’s collapse, further proof that we do not know what we thought we knew It has been eight years since Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and still it defines the calendar. For anyone in the financial world, time is divided… Continue reading Understanding The Financial Crisis
Bloomberg.com – Barry Ritholtz: Markets and Pundits Have a Data-Point Fixation Data drives the economic world around us…Yet people often seem to overlook the weaknesses in data. I see this often in the financial community and the use of data series, whether it’s the jobs numbers, housing prices or the consumer price index. The key… Continue reading Losing The Forest For The Trees
<Click on cartoon for larger image>
Comment The charts and tables below shows the Presidential race is getting closer. <Click on chart for larger image> The poll-plus model run by Nate Silver’s 538 blog shows the same odds as the betting markets above. <Click on graphic for larger image> The average of polls complied by Real Clear Politics also shows the race… Continue reading An Election Update: 60/40 Race and Closing
The Financial Times – China’s ‘national team’ in quiet retreat from stock market China’s “national team” reduced its stock holdings dramatically in the first half of 2016 without derailing a market rally, defying predictions that withdrawal of government support would spark a resumption of last summer’s crash. In early July 2015, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen… Continue reading Are Chinese Markets On Sunday Night Watch?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Dollar-Hedging Costs Hit Treasurys Rising price of borrowing U.S. currency overseas and investing in U.S. worsens selloff Yield tourism is getting expensive. For much of the year, strong demand from Japanese and European investors seeking better returns for their money than they could get at home… Continue reading Why Foreign Investors Are Not Buying Treasuries