Barron’s – How Large is Election’s Impact on Stocks? The President and the Market: Is There a Connection? Let’s now look at the results of our study. We looked at market returns during four-year presidential terms of office from January 1, 1949 to June 15, 2016. These 17 terms of office included nine Republican Presidents and… Continue reading Election Update … The Race Gets Closer
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – These Fed Speeches and Data Killed September Rate Hike Expectations Investors priced in a rate increase only to walk that outlook back Federal Reserve-watching can be a guessing game, and August and September are a perfect case in point. Federal funds futures markets priced in little chance of… Continue reading Pricing The Odds Of A Hike
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Central-Bank Rescues Prove Profitable Windfalls from stimulus measures have been a boon for many government budgets It turns out rescuing economies can be quite lucrative, as central banks collect interest on their lending to strapped commercial banks and on government bonds purchased to stimulate economies. From… Continue reading Central Banks Are Money-Making Machines
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bank of Japan Sets Bond-Rate Target in Policy Revamp Japan’s central bank took an unexpected step Wednesday, introducing a zero interest-rate target for 10-year government bonds to step up its fight against deflation, after an internal review of previous measures that fell short of expectations. The… Continue reading BoJ Overhauls Its Monetary Policy
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Libor Surge Set to Keep Fed on Hold, Deutsche Bank’s Slok Says Exodus from prime money-market funds lifts bank lending rates A rise in short-term bank borrowing costs may discourage Federal Reserve officials from tightening policy when they meet this week to debate the path of U.S.… Continue reading LIBOR And The Fed
Bloomberg Business – Supersized Corporate Bond Sales Are Taking a Bigger Bite Out of an $8 Trillion Market Would you like some yield with that? Would you like to supersize that corporate bond sale? Companies selling their debt to eager investors have replied with a collective ‘yes.’ They’ve opted to increase their issuance of mega-sized bonds of… Continue reading Corporate Bond Sales
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Welcome to Week of ‘Dreadful History’ for U.S. Equities: Chart September’s historically bad for U.S. stocks, but the month’s second half has been particularly painful. The week that comes after the quarterly event known as quadruple witching, when futures and options contracts on indexes and individual stocks… Continue reading Beware Quadruple Witching In Septembers
<Click on graphic for larger image> CNBC – Expect a December, not September, hike for rates: Fed survey respondents Prepare for a holiday hike. That’s the message from the latest CNBC Fed Survey, where 90 percent of the 41 respondents say the Federal Reserve won’t increase interest rates at its September meeting this week. But 88… Continue reading CNBC’s Fed Survey: Economists Look To December’s Meeting
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Ben Breitholtz: Hawkish Media Content at All-time High On August 26th we highlighted an extreme in hawkish media content. News story count (20-day rolling sum) for “hawkish” broke to its highest frequency on record earlier this month. Nonetheless, market-based expectations continue to shrug off the chorus with… Continue reading Hawkish Media At An All-Time High
None Today
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Two of Fed’s Own Primary Dealers Warn Shock Hike Awaits Markets Barclays, BNP see September hike even as futures show 20% odds ‘There is no perfect time’ to raise rates, BNP’s Rosner says There’s uncommon dissent in the ranks of the Federal Reserve’s primary dealers over the central… Continue reading The Fed Meeting
Bloomberg.com – Mohamed A. El-Erian: Fed Meeting Shouldn’t Obscure BOJ’s Big Moment This week, much attention will focus on the Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the most powerful central bank in the world, whose actions have global impact. Yet the most informative, and intriguing, policy decision could take place in Tokyo. And… Continue reading Tonight’s BoJ Meeting Might Be More Important Than The Fed Meeting