<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Peter Forbes: Further Room for Flattening in Sovereign Curves Sovereign yields curves have generally flattened since our call last week to fade the remarkable steepening move. We see room for further flattening into month end and perhaps beyond. Seasonals remain in play, calling for flattening through month… Continue reading Flattening Yield Curves
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – Robin Harding: BoJ experiment risks the worst of all worlds New tools may deliver little easing benefit now, but big problems if and when inflation starts to rise In the years after the 2008 financial crisis, as the US Federal Reserve battled to bring down… Continue reading More On The BoJ’s Decision
<Click on graphic for larger image> Business Insider – UBS: There’s a 31% chance of a recession in the next year .. Metals, crude oil and real estate investment trusts are moving higher, but a research note by UBS Global Macro strategy out on Thursday suggests to keep the champagne on ice. UBS’ credit model, designed… Continue reading Is A Recession Coming?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm in China’s Leverage Crackdown Central bank tweaks to money markets boosting funding costs Sovereign debt yields seen not making new lows this year China’s bond bulls are setting their sights lower these days. Haitong Securities Co. and Shanghai Rationalstone Investment Management Co.,… Continue reading China’s Leverage
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Ben Breitholtz: Volatility Dictated by Perceived Level of Central Bank Accommodation? Rising discussion of accommodative central bank policies in the media is being matched with falling implied volatility. Below we show a 20-day rolling sum of news story search for “accommodative central bank*” along with our composite… Continue reading On Volatility
The Financial Times – Markets yet to price in President Trump possibility Presidential election tension already evident in forex sector Polls have narrowed of late. But many investors — even those who support the Republican candidate — think the market is not pricing in an election victory for “The Donald”. It doesn’t matter how good… Continue reading Are We Ready For Trump?
Bloomberg Business – Here’s What Janet Yellen Has Wrong About the Job Market The idea that a strong labor market is pulling workers back doesn’t jibe Janet Yellen might want to take another look at what’s happening to the labor market. Speaking after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates on hold, the Fed chair said… Continue reading Labor Market
The Wall Street Journal – Is OPEC All Talk? A now-familiar pattern ensued Monday after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said the world’s big oil producers were close to clinching an output deal—oil prices rose more than 1% early that day, and then quickly fell, posting losses by Tuesday. It was among the most recent in a series… Continue reading OPEC Speaks
Bloomberg.com – You’re Not as Rich as You Think The idea that the world is awash in savings — one factor driving the theory of secular stagnation — is, on the surface, a persuasive one. Too bad it may not be true. Yes, the postwar generation is wealthier than any before it. But the ultimate value… Continue reading All The Money In The World
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[pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=324″] The Federal Reserve – September 21, 2016 Press Release .. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will… Continue reading The FOMC Statement & Summary Of Economic Projections
<Click on chart for larger image> Fox Business – Markets May Be Underestimating Pace of Fed Hikes: Nouriel Roubini “Markets are underpricing the probability that the Fed may hike faster than expected,” he said during a speech at the CME’s Precious Metals Dinner in New York last week. As Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro… Continue reading Roubini Speaks On The Pace Of Fed Hikes