BBC News – Germany ‘prepares Deutsche Bank rescue’ The German government and financial authorities are working on a rescue plan for Deutsche Bank in case it cannot pay fines in the US, according to Die Zeit newspaper. Under the rescue plan, Die Zeit said, if the bank really could not pay the fine by itself, then… Continue reading Germany Prepares To Bail Out Deutsche Bank If Needed
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Two Years Into Oil Slump, U.S. Shale Firms Are Ready to Pump More When oil prices began to plunge two years ago due to a global glut of crude, experts predicted U.S. shale producers would be the losers of the resulting shakeout. But the American companies that… Continue reading Crude Oil Production
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Bond Market Inflation Outlook Jumps as Goldman Says More to Come Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says inflation pressures are starting to build — and bonds are signaling traders agree. Investors anticipate consumer prices worldwide will rise 1.3 percent annually, the highest level in 14 months, based on Bank… Continue reading Global Inflation Expectations
The Economist – The low-rate world Central banks have been doing their best to pep up demand. Now they need help THEY do not naturally crave the limelight. But for the past decade the attention on central bankers has been unblinking—and increasingly hostile. During the financial crisis the Federal Reserve and other central banks were hailed… Continue reading Moving Beyond Central Bank Reliance In A Low-Rate World
The Wall Street Journal – Health of the U.S. Economy Is a Matter of Debate Poised for takeoff or in steep decline? Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump present differing visions Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton put forward sharply different portraits of the U.S. economy in their first face-to-face debate, offering voters a choice not only on… Continue reading Differing Views Of The Economy For Trump And Clinton
Comment On September 29, 2016 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us Thursday as we discuss the latest outlook for the markets following last week’s BoJ and Fed meetings… Continue reading Elections And Central Banks
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Reuters – Clinton gains in online betting markets after U.S. presidential debate U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s probability of winning the White House gained in online betting markets following the first debate of the campaign on Monday night between… Continue reading The Great Debate
The Wall Street Journal – Hedge Funds Take Another Punch to Gut Brevan Howard to charge 0% fees for some investors, while Perry Capital is shutting down The hedge-fund business is getting so tough that two of its biggest names are taking radical steps. Europe’s Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP plans to charge 0% fees for… Continue reading The Primal Scream Of Poor Hedge Performance Continues
Barron’s – Why the Fed Should Raise Rates Slowly Some Fed watchers decried the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. But raising rates shouldn’t be something that’s done in haste. Here’s why, and a better plan. SO WHY ARE THE HAWKS SO HAWKISH? For starters, their concerns aren’t unreasonable. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to… Continue reading Is A Fed Hike Coming?
<Click on graphic for larger image> St Louis Fed – Was the Great Moderation Simply on Vacation? To understand whether the Great Moderation has ended, we need to look at what may have caused it. There are three main explanations: – Good luck: The shocks that derailed growth and price stability in the 1970s and early… Continue reading Economic Volatility
Bloomberg View – Economics Has a Major Blind Spot The longer I work in the news media, the more I notice a problem with the way economics interacts with the world at large. Just to cite one example, economists often don’t take politics into account. As a result, econ models leave out important pieces, and the… Continue reading The Problem With Economics