<Click on chart for larger image> Barron’s – Has the Market Bet Too Heavily on Hillary Clinton? Stocks remain strong, gold is down and complacency reigns. Is the election talking? “Today, the consensus view is that Hillary Clinton is likely to win the presidency, Republicans will retain control of the House and Democrats will regain control… Continue reading Politics And Stocks
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Over 94 Million Americans Are Outside the Labor Force and That’s Almost Certain to Rise A growing but aging country will likely swell the number even if action’s taken to boost participation At first blush, it’s one of the most startling statistics about the U.S.… Continue reading The Aging Population’s Effect On The Job Market
Bloomberg View – Mihir Sharma: Central Banks Sow Confusion If there’s a golden rule for central bankers in the 21st century, this is it: Seek clarity and avoid uncertainty. A central bank’s target should be clear. The data it uses should be known. The analysis it conducts on that data should be comprehensible. And, certainly, politics should… Continue reading Confusion At World Central Banks
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Why Fiscal Policy Is Unlikely to Come to the Market’s Rescue Anytime Soon A fiscal fillip probably won’t buoy markets next year. The growing chorus of investors yearning for fiscal stimulus to keep financial markets afloat next year should brace for disappointment. The International Monetary Fund yesterday forecast budget balances will tighten modestly in… Continue reading Why Fiscal Policy Is Not Helping Markets
Linkedin – Remarks at the 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar The following speech was delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016. … As a result of this confluence of conditions, we are now seeing most central bankers pushing interest rates down to make them extremely… Continue reading Ray Dalio Speaks
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Hurricane Matthew to Test Catastrophe-Bond Market Just over half of outstanding $22 billion in catastrophe bonds held by pension plans and other big investors have some exposure to Florida storms The catastrophe-bond market faces its biggest test yet as Hurricane Matthew approaches Florida’s coast, potentially… Continue reading The Bond Market And Hurricane Matthew
Reuters.com – IMF, global finance leaders fret over populist backlash World finance leaders on Thursday decried a growing populist backlash against globalization and pledged to take steps to ensure trade and economic integration benefited more people currently left behind. Their comments at the start of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank fall meetings signaled frustration with… Continue reading The Rise Of Populist Forces And Finance
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – The Fed Talks Up a November Hike, But Bond Traders Aren’t Buying It Federal Reserve officials are warning investors not to rule out an interest-rate increase as soon as the central bank’s next meeting in November. The bond market’s response? We’re not buying it. In the past week,… Continue reading Timing The Next Rate Hike
The Financial Times – Martin Wolf: Deutsche Bank offers a tough lesson in risk The idea that shareholders control banks is a myth. It is management that is responsible All banks are weak, but some banks are weaker than others. This is the chief lesson of the market turmoil surrounding Deutsche Bank. Yet there is also… Continue reading Deutsche Bank’s Problem With Risk Management
Bloomberg Business – Central Banks on QE Highway Worry About Running Out of Road Sustainability key for central banks far from inflation goals Long after their U.S. counterpart ended asset purchases and started raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank continue to rely on massive quantitative easing in a battle to… Continue reading Central Banks Will Run Out Of Bonds To Buy
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Wall Street Might Have a Blind Spot When It Comes to Trump Markets inefficient at pricing in unexpected political events Minutes into last week’s presidential debate, investors decided that Donald Trump, a candidate many of them fear, was being outshone by Hillary Clinton. This, they figured, would… Continue reading Politics & Stocks