The New York Times – Central Banks Consider Bitcoin’s Technology, if Not Bitcoin Bitcoin was created by libertarian-minded programmers with a deep suspicion of central banks and the national currencies they issue. Yet it is central banks that are doing some of the most ambitious work of late in trying to harness the technology introduced by… Continue reading More On Blockchain Technology And Central Banks
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> <Click on table for larger image> Comment On Saturday we put out a note that Trump’s 2005 “hot mic” video hurt his odds of winning the election considerably in traders’ eyes. We concluded our comment with: Trump needs to pull off a mini-miracle tomorrow night,… Continue reading Trump’s Implosion Continues
The Financial Times – Matteo Renzi acts to mollify party dissidents Predecessor as leader suggests he will vote against new electoral law in December referendum Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, has sought to stamp out high-profile opposition to constitutional reform from within his own centre-left Democratic party ahead of a high-stakes referendum on the measures… Continue reading Italy’s Populist Uprising – Brexit 1.5?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Comment In the chart above the S&P 500 (blue line) and the bond market (red line) are leading all categories of hedge funds since December 31, 2014. The Financial Times – Hedge funds: Brevan Howard comes up short Stellar returns helped make hedge fund and its $3tn industry but the… Continue reading A Look At The Hedge Fund Industry Across The Globe
The Financial Times – Bond ETF volumes surge to record highs Investors pile in more than $100bn this year, a rise of 24 per cent Investors have piled more than $100bn into bond exchange traded funds so far this year, taking the global total to its highest ever level as fixed income investors adapt to a… Continue reading Bond ETF Inflows Boom
The Financial Times – Kenneth Rogoff: It would be wrong to abandon the policy of negative rates The alternatives are deeply unattractive The mixed results from experiments with negative interest rate policy in Europe and Japan have led many to conclude that the idea is ill begotten and should be abandoned. To do so would… Continue reading In Praise Of Negative Rates
Barron’s – Randall W Forsyth: The Truly Scary Clowns Are Central Bankers Central bank’s stimulative policies are having little effect in boosting economies and are losing steam. It’s a plague that besets our nation, threatening our peace, the safety of our children, indeed our well-being. I speak, of course, of clowns. Creepy clowns, lurking in… Continue reading Scary Central Bankers
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – One of Jeff Gundlach’s Favorite Recession Indicators Just Got Triggered September’s jobs report contained a sign that investors should be on alert for a U.S. recession, judging by bond guru Jeff Gundlach’s favorite warning signs. During a panel discussion at the New York Historical Society back in May,… Continue reading Recession Indicators
<Click on graphic for larger image> Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 7, down from 2.2 percent on October 5. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real… Continue reading GDPNow Continues Its March Lower
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Goldman Warns China’s Outflows May Be Worse Than They Look Yuan cross-border payments surged to $27.7 billion in August Market factors can’t explain such large moves, Goldman says China’s currency outflows may be bigger than they look, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warning that a rising amount of… Continue reading China’s Capital Flight Continues
The Wall Street Journal – Bond Markets: The Uneven Playing Field Facing Investors Borrowers are still in the sweet spot, but lenders face a tougher path from here The relentless decline in bond yields made everyone a winner. Borrowers got cheaper access to funding, while investors saw the returns stack up. But there is a less… Continue reading The Bond Market