The Wall Street Journal – The Dying Business of Picking Stocks Passive investing has become investors’ default, driving billions into funds that track indexes. It’s transforming Wall Street, corporate boardrooms and the life of the neighborhood broker Investors are giving up on stock picking. Pension funds, endowments, 401(k) retirement plans and retail investors are flooding into passive… Continue reading Active vs. Passive Management
The Wall Street Journal – More Than One Worry Is Hitting Bond Markets There is a little bit of fear creeping into government bond markets. It is about time, even if investors are still underestimating how much long-term Treasury rates could rise from here. Government bonds are no longer the can’t-lose market, as a steady drop in… Continue reading The Bond Market And Inflation
Bloomberg Business – The Fed Embraces a More Diverse Future Yellen continued Bernanke’s work to improve communication, and she also has sought to be more explicit about the various measures of data, particularly employment data, used to make monetary policy decisions. She often talks about both the official measure of the unemployment rate — U3 —… Continue reading U.S. Demographics And Fed Policy
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Iran Boosting Oil Production in Possible Hitch to OPEC Deal Iran doesn’t accept OPEC secondary-source output estimates Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest member, plans to boost its oil output to 4 million barrels a day this year, potentially complicating the producer group’s plan to cut supply in an effort… Continue reading Iran Ignores OPEC’s Plans And Boosts Production
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – What OPEC’s Oil U-Turn Missed: Peak Demand Keeps Getting Closer OPEC’s decision last month to reverse its policy of unfettered production and cut oil output to boost prices may be at odds with the industry’s most important long-term trend: demand for what they produce could start falling… Continue reading Oil Demand And The Rise Of Electric Cars
Factset – Earnings Insight for October 14, 2016 Earnings Scorecard: With 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date for Q3 2016, 76% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 62% have reported sales above the mean estimate. Earnings Growth: For Q3 2016, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500… Continue reading An Earnings Update
The New York Times – Signs of Strain in the Stock and Bond Love Affair Until recently, bond and stock prices have generally moved in opposite directions when stocks falter. But something different happened in September, and it could render bonds a weaker tool for portfolio diversification. On Sept. 9, when the stock market fell… Continue reading The Stock/Bond Correlation
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Dumber Stock Market Theory Gains Traction in Earnings Day Impact Just because U.S. corporate profit growth has ground to a halt doesn’t mean the impact of earnings announcements in the stock market has diminished. In fact, it’s never been bigger. Swings such as Alcoa Inc.’s 11 percent… Continue reading The Impact Of Earnings Releases
The Wall Street Journal – Marc Levinson: Why the Economy Doesn’t Roar Anymore The long boom after World War II left Americans with unrealistic expectations, but there’s no going back to that unusual Golden Age The U.S. presidential candidates have made the usual pile of promises, none more predictable than their pledge to make the… Continue reading The New Normal
The New York Times – Why Isn’t the Fed Raising Rates? It’s Complicated, Chief Says Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, did not talk on Friday about the Fed’s plans for its benchmark interest rate. Instead, she talked about why those plans have been so hard to make. In a wide-ranging speech, Ms. Yellen… Continue reading Yellen Speaks
Barron’s – Barron’s Big Money Poll: The Bulls Rule, for Now Stocks could rise 9% through the end of 2017, say U.S. money managers. The outlook for interest rates, the economy, Apple, Amazon.com. Our latest poll finds 45% of respondents bullish or very bullish about the market’s outlook through the middle of 2017, up from… Continue reading Polling Money Managers